League: Australians strong but look beatable

Two factors are critical to New Zealand's success in the Tri-Nations final tomorrow morning - the Kiwis have to chance their arm and Stacey Jones has to get them playing at the right end of the field.

Jones must kick dead to touch to slow the Aussies or kick very long and deep to give the chasers time to corral the ball-returner.

The Kiwis have been getting out of their own half on every set of six and that remains a vital ingredient if they are to rattle the Kangaroos and put themselves in with a chance of winning the trophy. If they play at their own end, errors will be forced and the Kangaroos will capitalise.

It is crucial that the Kiwis make good metres early in the tackle count without trying anything too flashy and risky, especially near their own goal line. But by tackles three and four they need to be using their strength and power advantage to suck in defenders and get the ball away, free-passing, keeping the ball alive to break holes in the Australian line.

Conversely, locking up the ball carrier will be a priority for Australia.

The Kiwis are always prone to try stuff that is not in the NRL book and that has given them the edge over the formulated approach of the Kangaroos in recent games.

"They're a bigger group of guys, more physical and they've all got an off-load in them," said Kangaroos coach Wayne Bennett this week. "They've got footwork and size and a high skill level. You have to respect the fact they're very capable."

Kiwis coach Brian McClennan is hampered by the Kiwis' lack of a specialist five-eighth, with Nigel Vagana still learning the when-to-run, when-to-pass decision-making of the game-runner and still short of a kicking game.

"We're not as creative as Great Britain or Australia before the defensive line with our pass selections and things. We just don't have the players to do that," he said.

"But we believe we're the best team in the world at off-loading in the line with the style of athletes we have and that's what we have to do against the Aussies."

It's a matter of making the passes stick.

The Kiwis have to score, because Australia will. Great defence must be tempered with great attack. Errors, dropped ball and mistakes around the ruck, will be punished. So will sloppy marker defence. The Australians will want to play the game at speed, forcing quick play-the-balls in their aim to out-run the Kiwis, out-pacing and out-lasting them.

Vagana and Jones have to look for Brent Webb's injections at speed from fullback, one of the Kiwis' most devastating weapons in this series.

And the little men need to hang off David Solomona who has proved perhaps the most accomplished off-loader of the three Tri-Nations teams.

If the predicted sleet and snow hit Leeds, that may play into the Kiwis' hands. It will certainly tighten the game up and may discourage the Kangaroos from using the wide, cut-out passes that both Craig Gower and Trent Barrett deliver. A more forward-oriented struggle would be the result, with perhaps the little men deciding things with their darts in traffic.

The Kiwis cannot afford a broken defensive line in broken play, an opportunity the Australian speed runners, including Anthony Minichiello and Brent Tate, would relish. Both are faster than anyone in the Kiwis team.

But, again, a sodden and snow-laden field would not be conducive to that sort of play.

Referee Steve Ganson is sure to watch Australia's interference in the Kiwis' play-the-ball and New Zealand's attempts to slow the return of the ball as the Kangaroos are tackled. Flops and hold-downs will be penalised, an ill-discipline the Kiwis cannot afford, especially given Craig Fitzgibbon's superior goal-kicking success rate to Jones'.

But this Australian side does not look to have the invincibility about it that Kangaroos teams usually carry. They are injury-racked, as is New Zealand, with key players out.

McClennan has told his team all along that they are capable of making history and they have already done that, winning in Sydney for the first time since the 1950s. They have another chance to make history tomorrow.

Both camps named 19 players with two to be cut today.