KEY POINTS:
The key for a Kiwis win in Brisbane tonight is simple - control possession and play it at the right end of the field.
There is no doubt the Kiwis will bring their usual destructive defence and there is every expectation they will win the physical contest.
There is no doubt they will compete - and compete well - early on.
In past Anzac tests - 37-10 in Newcastle in 2004, 32-16 in Brisbane in 2005 and 50-12 here last year - the Kiwis have been run down in the last quarter.
In order to compete throughout this test they need to apply discipline and concentration.
They need a better kicking game than has been the case in previous Anzac tests and they need an enthusiastic kick-chase so they do not play too much of the match in their own half.
There are two factors in their favour: This Kiwi side is fitter and players are in better form than last year's while this year's Kangaroos team is stacked with players picked on last year's form.
And they have no Andrew Johns. It was he who engineered the try-scoring run in the last quarter of last year's game.
If the Kiwis are beaten it will not be by the huge margin of 2006.
The return of Sonny Bill Williams and Benji Marshall after playing last year's Anzac game, then missing the Tri-Nations, offers individual brilliance that could turn a game.
"I'm not expecting them to come up with game-breaking plays," said coach Brian McClennan. "They have plenty of support around them."
Williams said he was pumped to be selected after watching the Kiwis do well in the last two Tri-Nations and raring to go, injury-free for a change and fully fit after a full pre-season.
Marshall said both he and Williams were under-done last year.
He felt in good form and was ready to take more responsibility for in-field kicking and was happy to do the goal-kicking.
McClennan has avoided loading pressure on his young charges. The Aussies have been trying to do that. Their coach, Ricky Stuart, has repeatedly drawn attention to the inexperience of the Kiwis halves and the new fullback, Krisnan Inu.
It is very clear that the Kangaroos will bomb him repeatedly - until he shows he will not falter. If they prosper early, they'll kick at him all night.
They will also be aiming to shut down Kiwis halfback Ben Roberts and Marshall, stifling the kicking game and preventing them from setting their outsides away.
The game promises to be hard and tight to start, with plenty of intimidation.
The Kangaroos have copped criticism for not taking action last year after Frank Pritchard carried out his threat and flattened their fullback Karmichael Hunt. McClennan has told his troops to keep it clean.
"We'll play fair and we'll play hard but we'll be nice and disciplined and do whatever the ref says."
Forget talk of a huge Kiwis pack. The Kangaroos are 2kg bigger on average, 105kg to our 103kg, a total of 634kg to 617. Include the benches and it's closer, the Kangaroos weighing in at 1025kg, the Kiwis 1021kg.
The Kiwis look more mobile and it is the line-breaks, off-loads and support plays initiated by their skilful backrowers that provide their best chance of repeatedly cutting up the Kangaroos defence.
Brisbane's temperature is expected to hit 30C today and it may still be hovering around 20C at game-time. More than 30,000 tickets have been sold and a big walk-up crowd is expected.
The Kiwis do not expect Willie Mason to disrespect the haka this year as he did in Auckland in 2006. In a newspaper column written before his self-imposed media ban he said he knew 500 cameras would be on him and he would be shutting his mouth.
