On paper anyway, this New Zealand forward pack loses nothing against their Australian counterparts. Indeed, if the young Storm trio of Jesse Bromwich, Kevin Proctor and Tohu Harris rise to the occasion and Adam Blair and Greg Eastwood rediscover their 2010 vintage there will be plenty of front foot ball for the Kiwi back division.
Kicking game
It usually a massive Achilles heel, but the Kiwis should be able to employ a reasonable kicking game tonight. Shaun Johnson and Kieran Foran have plenty to offer in that department, and Thomas Leuluai also provides a decent option from dummy half. The absence of Johnathan Thurston also means the New Zealanders should match up well in the goal kicking department, with Johnson just as capable as Cameron Smith.
Brisbane bounty
Since 1983 the Kiwis have enjoyed more success against the Kangaroos in Brisbane than any other city outside Auckland. No one really knows why, but it hasn't been the graveyard than Sydney, Melbourne and even Wellington have tended to be and one third of the Kiwis' victories in the last three decades have occurred in the Queensland capital.
Reasons for fear:
Defence
Defence wins these matches and the Kangaroos, like the All Blacks, are incredibly hard to score points against. Since the 2008 World Cup final, which they won 34-20, the Kiwis have only managed to exceed 12 points on one occasion in a trans tasman clash (this year's Anzac test).
In contrast the Australians always have points in them, and have notched 30 points or more in each of the last three encounters between these two teams.
Cameron Smith
Despite the slew of withdrawals, the Kangaroos retain their most important player and arguably the most influential player on the planet. On so many occasions during their current run of eight consecutive wins against the Kiwis the Storm hooker has come up with the vital play; there is no one better on either side at setting the rhythm of a match, either on attack or defence. The Australian side hasn't lost since he has been captain.
Strike power
The Kiwis team look to lack strike power, especially with the absence of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Manu Vatuvei. There isn't genuine pace out wide and not much of an aerial threat, with Gerard Beale, Jason Nightingale or Peta Hiku. Contrast that with an Australian back three of Greg Inglis, Josh Mansour and Daniel Tupou - as well as the frightening pace of Michael Jennings. The Kiwis will need to come up with a defensive master class on the flanks to restrict the Australians.
No more surprises
In the 1980s, and even in the 1990s, there was always the possibility of a Kiwi wild card to upset the Australians. That was the key to many famous victories; some players coming from almost nowhere to shock the Kangaroos, who didn't know much about several of their opponents. These days there can be no fear of the unknown; every part of each Kiwi player's game, their strengths and their weaknesses are analysed on a week by week basis in the NRL.
