The Kiwis may begin their Four Nations campaign against the Kangaroos in London on Sunday morning, but it is the contest a fortnight later, against England in Huddersfield, that will almost certainly determine their fate.
Such is the nature of international league that, even in a four-team tournament, there are
only three serious players. And such is the pre-eminence of Australia that you can pencil in one of the names in any final well before the first try is ruled out by the shonky home-country video referee.
Sure, the Kiwis could beat the Aussies on Sunday, but history, commonsense, and a particularly leaky defensive effort in their lone build-up match against Tonga suggest they won't.
Just as the Kiwis could struggle on Sunday, the Poms will be hard-pressed to upset the Kangaroos' apple cart in the pie-eaters' paradise in Wigan a week later.
They may have scored a famous 23-12 win in Sydney in 2006 but, as a rule, far better Great Britain line-ups than this latest England lot have found ways to flop against much weaker Kangaroos sides in recent times.
It hardly takes Nostradamus, then, to predict that the Kiwis' clash with the Poms in a small town at the foot of the Pennines is the key match of the round-robin phase.
And it should be some match.
Huddersfield may be the birthplace of league, with the code's breakaway from union formalised at the George Hotel in 1895, but it was very nearly a graveyard for the Kiwis in 2005.
Needing only to finish within 20-odd points to guarantee their place in the Tri-Nations final, the Kiwis contrived to lose to the host country 38-12.
It was a massacre, but one that was quickly forgotten when the Kangaroos KO'd the Lions in Hull, allowing the Kiwis to go on and create history in the final at Elland Road a week later.
England can be dangerous on their day, but even a Kiwis side stripped of a host of senior players should be good enough to knock them over and get into the final.
If they don't, their tournament could only be construed as a failure, and Stephen Kearney's ability as a coach without Wayne Bennett at his side will come into question.
But if they do make the final, the triumphs of 2005 and 2008 have shown they should never be written off in a one-off contest.
Both of those notable victories came after the team had been together for an extended period. The players clearly bonded, forming a collective that far exceeded the sum of its individual parts.
There is a reason the Kangaroos routinely win the Anzac test. On a scratch preparation, their team of individual geniuses will almost always tear apart a disjointed Kiwis side.
But given time, even a Kiwis side stacked with rookies and long term prospects can gel into a dangerous unit.
There is plenty of reason for optimism, then, if the Kiwis can make the final.
The key will be getting there.
Opinion by
The Kiwis may begin their Four Nations campaign against the Kangaroos in London on Sunday morning, but it is the contest a fortnight later, against England in Huddersfield, that will almost certainly determine their fate.
Such is the nature of international league that, even in a four-team tournament, there are
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.