There's no chance the Kiwis will take the Kumuls lightly in Rotorua tomorrow.
It may not be the strongest Papua New Guinea side but the Kiwis won't be going into the match thinking, "We are going to smash them". That just doesn't happen these days. The players are far too professional.
It's a real shame the Kumuls aren't fielding their strongest team. The team that won last year's Pacific Cup to qualify for the Four Nations had a bunch of hardened NRL players in it.
Just about all of those players have pulled out and coach Adrian Lam also quit, so they've obviously got a few issues there.
But even without their big guns the Kumuls can't be taken lightly. They are a very physical bunch, they will put their bodies on the line and do everything they can to force the Kiwis to cough up the ball. If they can get the momentum heading in their favour, maybe grab a couple of early tries and then get a good spell of possession, anything can happen.
That sort of boilover doesn't happen very often when one team is clearly much stronger than the other - but it does happen.
The Kiwis, for example, were given a hell of a shock by Tonga at the 1995 World Cup. We prepared for that game extremely well. We knew Tonga were a tough side full of experienced pros. We were huge favourites but in the end only a couple of late tries saw us sneak home 25-24. That match was such a battle. With the Mann brothers in their side Tonga had the whole of the Warrington crowd behind them. Every bounce of the ball and every decision favoured them and it became very, very difficult.
Once the momentum turns against you like that it is extremely hard to turn it around.
The Kiwis will be wary of that. They won't want it to happen tomorrow. They never looked in any doubt against England but they won't have been thrilled with how they played. They will want to improve their ball security and hone their attacking and defensive structures.
Because they were under the pump for much of the match against England - down on subs after the loss of Manu Vatuvei and up against a very strong English pack - the Kiwis were often too bunched in attack.
That made it difficult for players to penetrate in the middle third. Against the Kumuls they need to play with more width and take the opportunities that will open up.
That fluency in attack will only happen if the Kiwis can get their defensive structures right, which is what they have been working on this week. One thing is for sure, the Kumuls have the physicality to put the Kiwis under pressure.
It will be a good test.
<i>Richie Barnett:</i> Kumuls' physicality can put Kiwis under pressure
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