Peter Jessup: Kiwis look stronger than World Cup combination

In what sport other than league would a bet on the Aussies against the world champions be paying around $4 for a win.

That's a generous payout given the quality of the Kiwis team.

When the New Zealanders run out at Suncorp Stadium tomorrow night they will have in the back of their minds that they have beaten the Kangaroos as many times as the Kangaroos have beaten them in all contests since 2005.

They will also be remembering the towelings they've had in the nine Anzac games, what the 2003 national coach Daniel Anderson called "the mid-season beat-up", where the average score has been 36-12 to the green and gold.

The scoreline will be a lot closer tomorrow. The team chosen by coach Stephen Kearney has just two changes from the World Cup squad and with the return of Roy Asotasi looks stronger.

The disappointment is Issac Luke being suspended. Although his replacement Dene Halatau is solid and reliable, he lacks the x-factor.

Frank Pritchard is another big loss because he is the second rower with the capability to break the line and off-load in tackles. That is the one area where the Kiwis look deficient - Jeremy Smith and Simon Mannering are superb workhorses but the attack would be invigorated by someone of the ilk of Kearney himself, a Jarrod McCracken or Ali Lauitiiti.

Sending Lance Hohaia to fullback declares that the side will mix up their attack/defence roles. He is the one most likely to go to hooker to relieve Halatau and when he does Sam Perrett will go to fullback and Jason Nightingale to Perrett's wing.

It's an unconventional game plan but one that has stumped the Aussies in the past - it's similar to that used by Graham Lowe when the Kiwis won 19-12 in Brisbane in 1987 when he switched Nicky Wright, Gary Prohm and Gordon Smith between half, five-eighth, lock and fullback and confused the players assigned to mark them.

That $4 looks a reasonable bet. But the Aussies are so good that maybe the better one is Kangaroos by 1-12.

Kiwis
Lance Hohaia, Sam Perrett, Simon Mannering, Jerome Ropati, Manu Vatuvei, Nathan Fien, Benji Marshall (captain), Roy Asotasi, Issac Luke, Adam Blair, David Fa'alogo, Bronson Harrison, Jeremy Smith.

Interchange: Greg Eastwood, Jeff Lima, Jason Nightingale, Iosia Soliola.