KEY POINTS:
Statistics are always important in rugby league - not critical to all judgment and outcomes, but close to it.
The stats say New Zealand cannot possibly win the test in Brisbane tomorrow night because:
a.) They do not have the test experience the Australians do.
b.) They do not have the strike weapons in key positions that the Australians do.
c.) They do not have the pack to match the Aussies.
If the stats are right the Kiwis will struggle for roll-on because Nathan Cayless, Sam Rapira and Adam Blair will not be able to match the ground gain made by Steve Price and Petero Civoniceva with Brent Kite off the bench.
They will struggle because their field kickers Nathan Fien and Benji Marshall do not have the length that Johnathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer do. The Kiwis will struggle because, the stats say, Billy Slater will beat Lance Hohaia by a long way in terms of kick-return. And they do not have a forward ground-gainer, off-loader and try-scorer who can match the stats produced by Anthony Tupou.
Plus, the bulk of the 40,000-plus crowd at Suncorp Stadium tomorrow night will be cheering for the green and gold.
So it looks like Mission: Impossible for Stephen Kearney and his men in black.
But there are six things the Kiwis could do to aid their chances of an unlikely victory:
1.) Bribe the ref Ashley Klein and/or the video ref Steve Ganson.
Just kidding.
But they do need to pay attention to Klein's indications about the play-the-ball. The Pommie referees like the game to flow and Super League standards do not allow the hold-downs with multiple players and late divers that are standard in the NRL. They need to mark up quickly and accurately at the play-the-ball and when possible shut the first runner off.
There must be no ill-discipline, no high or late shots, no chat back. If they lose the penalty count, they'll likely lose the game.
2) Take Paul Gallen's head off - hey, he likes playing dirty so all's fair in love and war.
Just kidding.
But they do need to shut Gallen down as he is the link man between the rolling Aussie pack and the speed and guile that is available to the Kangaroos wide of the scrum and ruck. The Kiwis need to smash him over repeatedly, allow him no room and cause pain that will have him looking for the next black-and-white jersey coming at him, rather than the next green-and-gold one passing the ball.
3) Dive at the grounded leg of the kickers Thurston, Lockyer and hooker Cameron Smith as they stand on one to punt.
Just kidding, that's illegal.
But they do need to deny the Aussie kickers any room to move and any time to pick a grassy target well into Kiwis territory. If that trio are rushed to kick and do so without accuracy it will blunt not only the ground gain but also the pinpoint kicks to Folau, Inglis and the wingers. The Kiwis must stop Thurston's darts in traffic - allow him to crab and jilt and eventually he'll pick the right runner to put through a hole, or go through one himself - and they have to watch for Lockyer's long pass to the outsides.
4) Find some Spiderman-type grip gloves or use Ados, velcro or some other adhesive on their hands.
They have dropped an enormous amount of ball in every game they have played from the warm-ups against the Maori and Tonga on through the pool matches and into last weekend's semi-final against England.
Rarely will the Kiwis get within the Kangaroos' red zone - so they cannot afford to let those slim attacking opportunities go begging because of over-enthusiasm and pushed passes or sloppy execution or they won't win. Lance Hohaia has shown a frailty under the bomb to the goal-line, so he can expect to be peppered all night.
5) Play the Energiser non-stop, off-load, back-up-and-support style that New Zealand teams and players have always brought to the game - and do it without making bunnies of themselves by off-loading bad passes to teammates ... or good ones to Aussies.
The Kangaroos defence has been such that they have not allowed any team to build momentum against them for any length of time. So far, they have not been tested because no team has repeatedly put them under pressure at any stage of any game.
6) Tackle, tackle, tackle, tackle, tackle and then tackle some more.
A standard statistic for top tackler in an NRL game would be 32-35, the top tackler from a weekend's eight games might be around 40. A couple of others would be in the high-20s.
If the Kiwis are to win they will need a handful of tacklers who rack up stats of 30-40. Defence is the key to victory.
