The Kiwis aren't saying it but they've already lost the first battle in this year's Tri-Nations series. And we're still a week away from kickoff.
Letting the Bulldogs pull Sonny Bill Williams from the Kiwis squad over his need for surgery has robbed the defending champions of their best player and once again signalled to the Aussies that they control who we get to play.
And make no mistake, the Kiwis are half the side without Williams.
I guarantee that if the Bulldogs still had six games to play Williams would be lining up for each and every one of them.
Yet the guy who could have given Brian McClennan's latest squad more than one dimension in the forwards is missing - again.
McClennan and the New Zealand Rugby League have rolled over far too easily on this one.
I wouldn't be surprised if the injury Sonny Bill is having surgery for is the one he's been carrying all season.
As a coach you know that a big percentage of your squad are a 50-50 proposition week in, week out.
McClennan and the NZRL should have said to the Bulldogs: "Go and get stuffed, he can have his surgery after the Tri-Nations."
Or better still, the coach should have named Williams the Kiwis captain months ago and put the Bulldogs - and Sonny Bill - on notice: We expect him to be there.
Because to be honest I think Sonny Bill needs to take more control over his international career.
He's often talked of his passion for playing in the Kiwis jersey, and I believe he means it. But it's no good to the team from the sidelines.
All this is no disrespect to current skipper Ruben Wiki. He still has a place in the side but his time is coming to an end.
McClennan needs to grab the future - and that's Sonny Bill Williams.
Maybe it's time the NZRL started to contract its own players and pay them on the basis they play a certain number of tests each year.
A talent like Williams comes along once in a blue moon.
The Kiwis need to squeeze every moment they can out of Sonny Bill, not fall for the line about needing to get him right this year so he'll be around for the next 10. Bloody hell, I remember players trying to hide injuries from me so they could play.
I fear unless McClennan and the NZRL get on the front foot with this the Kiwis are going to be the losers at one of the most critical times they have faced in the past 30 years.
McClennan can win the next battle, he can reclaim the initiative.
If I was him I wouldn't mess around naming his 17 for the series opener on Saturday week.
He fell into that trap of trying to play mind games ahead of the Anzac test in May and his side got hijacked for it, losing 50-12.
Naming the Kiwis side first could be just as powerful a decision as the one to leave Williams out of the side.
This is the one time McClennan can write the game plan on the back of a beer coaster. He needs to pick his best XIII - not get bogged down in who he thinks might do the job man for man against the Aussies - have faith in his selections and then trust his players to do the job.
They will be good enough - just let them play footy.
It's a concern the squad has too many of the same types of players in the forwards and the back row lacks speed.
So if McClennan really wants to go on the attack he could do worse than pick someone like Frank Pritchard or Epalahame Lauaki for the run-on XIII. They could provide the unexpected, and that's what's needed to undo the Aussies.
Nigel Vagana offers the experience the Kiwis need in the backline. He's a big-game player and has the mental toughness and presence to guide younger players around him.
It's great to see Manly's Steve Matai in the squad, he should be a real asset out in the centres with Vagana.
I'd pick Tame Tupou and Manu Vatuvei on the wings.
They're big, hungry players who can keep the ball alive and put defenders in two minds.
You know what you're going to get with Stacey Jones and Jerome Ropati has really come on this season. But that still leaves us weak in kicking for field position.
Kangaroos coach Ricky Stuart will have worked McClennan out by now. And he'll know that the Kiwis coach builds his stool with four legs: Wiki, Jones, Vagana and Roy Asotasi.
They're great players but without Sonny Bill he now needs to take a punt and inject some daring.
Lowe's Pick
Graham Lowe picks his side for the first Tri-Nations test:
Brent Webb (Leeds)
Tame Tupou (Brisbane)
Steve Matai (Manly)
Nigel Vagana (Souths)
Manu Vatuvei (Warriors)
Jerome Ropati (Warriors)
Stacey Jones (Catalans)
Ruben Wiki (Warriors)
Dene Halatau (Wests Tigers)
Roy Asotasi (Bulldogs)
Epalahame Lauaki (Warriors)
Frank Pritchard (Penrith)
David Kidwell (Storm)
Interchange:
Awen Guttenbeil (Castleford)
Tony Puletua (Penrith)
David Solomona (Wakefield)
Simon Mannering (Warriors)
<i>Graham Lowe:</i> No Sonny Bill, no chance - harsh lesson for Kiwis
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