KEY POINTS:
Charismatic Kiwi coach Bluey McClennan is no great student of history.
Yet he need look no further than the archives of the British Navy for the blueprint for a New Zealand victory over Australia in tomorrow night's Tri-Nations final in Sydney .
McClennan would have had some sleepless nights this week, plotting how to defy history and beat the powerful Kangaroos for back-to-back titles. But history and simplicity are likely to hold the keys to a famous victory.
McClennan needs to stick to a simple plan that works best for this Kiwis side. That plan is all about the power game.
The Australians will talk themselves up, but they are not as strong as the Kiwis in the forwards.
Sure, they have outstanding backs who are yet to fire in this series. But if the Kiwis can hold them to a physical contest they can retain the trophy.
The history that can help Bluey and his Kiwis is Lord Nelson's battle plan against the Spanish-Franco fleet at Trafalgar in 1805. Nelson famously signalled to his fleet that England expected every man to do his duty.
Nelson knew he had to fight at close quarters. That's exactly what the Kiwis must do against the Kangaroos.
Australia have the long range weapons to launch assaults from anywhere. But the Kiwis can neutralise this power by engaging them in a hand-to-hand contest.
McClennan has worked hard to convince everyone the Kiwis are underdogs. But in this series they have displayed a power game the Aussies can't match.
A power game needs to shut down the open space that Australia love. Their blistering speed is an advantage when it comes to creating long-range tries. To counter this threat, strong field position and gang tackling are the answers.
It is not a pretty way of playing footy but it's a winning way.
At close quarters, Australia don't have the man-to-man muscularity of the Kiwis, and have shown uncharacteristic weaknesses at times.
Former Kiwi great Roger Bailey agrees.
"This is a pretty good Aussie side but the days when they could just dominate the Kiwis are now gone," he says.
"It's often now just the bounce of the ball. The Aussies have three or four great players but they are not the threat they once were."
Bailey rates the Kiwis' chances highly and typically pulls no punches about the contribution they now make to the NRL.
"It [the NRL] would be a lot of rubbish without the Kiwi players," he says.
It's a sentiment I share, that there are as many Kiwi stars in the NRL as there are Australians.
Former Manly hardman, and now widely respected commentator Peter (Zorba) Peters, always calls it as he sees it, and on this occasion it's all black and white.
"The Kiwis have to be favourites. They have been the form team of the Tri-Series," says Peters.
In a frank assessment of the Kangaroos, Peters says "the Aussie backs need to get a court order to get the ball from the forwards".
"If it's close at halftime the Kiwis will win. To have any chance the Aussies have to play it in the backs - the Kiwi forwards have more skill than the Kangaroos."
McClennan will be uncomfortable with the support for his side. But the Kiwis will not be listening to anyone else's view and must approach the game in their own confident manner.
The Aussies are clearly struggling to fit into coach Ricky Stuart's type of game.
ARL chief executive Geoff Carr has said that Stuart's job is safe, no matter what the outcome of this series.
But Stuart is a man under pressure here, and in Peters' words "an endorsement from Carr is like the kiss of death".
McClennan is under no such pressure and believe me this will help in the mind games.
I know the Aussies finished Great Britain off comfortably last Saturday but for mine they still looked out of sync.
Part of the problem for the Kangaroos forwards is they look tired and keen for the tournament to be over. Compare this to the Kiwis, who have looked ready to go in every game except the first test against Australia at Mt Smart.
But it would be foolish to write off the great spirit and tradition of those who wear the famed green and gold.
Just having backs such as captain Darren Lockyer, and teenage sensations Greg Inglis and Karmichael Hunt makes the Kangaroos favourites in the eyes of many. But not me.
I'm no historian, but I fully expect that in 30 years my sons will be reading about one of New Zealand rugby league's greatest days on November 25, 2006.
Someone who will be watching the outcome of this final closely is my old mate Bob Hall. Bob is a well-known New Zealand league identity and is in poor health.
Bob has forgotten more about the game than most people know, and has always been one of my most highly regarded confidantes. He is the best judge of young football talent I have met and it would give him the greatest thrill if the Kiwis can triumph tomorrow. I know I speak for many when I say our love and thoughts are with him.
And a final thought on Auckland's waterfront stadium issue. Why don't we play all the preliminary games at stadiums throughout New Zealand (including Eden Park). Then, if the All Blacks make the final, our Government can give every one of the 60,000 people who want to be at the game a $1000 grant to travel to Sydney and watch it at Telstra Stadium. The $60 million involved would be a tidy saving on some of the outrageous construction costs which have been bandied about.
