COMMENT
If I had a dollar for every time I've seen an Australian league team get out of jail in the dying minutes of a test, I'd be writing this column from the back of a yacht in the Whitsundays.
In fact, I still have the odd nightmare about the second test in 1985 at Carlaw Park, when the Kiwis were hanging on grimly to a 6-4 lead. With less than a minute to play, big Aussie winger John Ribot scorched on to a long pass to snatch the game from our grasp.
Ribot, a great player who went on to become a capable administrator, had also dealt us out of the first test at Lang Park with two tries, including one in the dying seconds.
And the 1999 Tri-Series final comes to mind when Wendell Sailor scored a last-minute try with the Kiwis leading 20-18.
Being beaten at the death after doing all the hard work is one of the most gut-wrenching feelings for a coach.
And last Sunday morning's 12-8 win over Great Britain was another great example of why the Aussies are again the ones to beat in this Tri-Nations tournament.
The Kiwis and the Brits have both been beaten over the past couple of weeks because they lacked concentration for the full 80 minutes. In contrast Australia, under enormous pressure at various stages throughout their first three games, have never lost the plot.
While there is now tremendous pressure on New Zealand, Great Britain are also under the hammer because as hosts of the tournament they expect to be in the final.
There was little to suggest last Sunday morning that the Englishmen came from a competition supposedly inferior to the NRL. They matched Australia in every department, and only their concentration let them down at the end of each half.
The pressure is now on the home side to get a result against New Zealand because the Kiwis' one point from their draw in the first game against Australia could prove to be a godsend.
Great Britain played well for most of the game last Sunday, although I felt their use of the bench was questionable.
Halfback Sean Long was outstanding against the Aussie No. 7 Brett Kimmorley, and this is where most of the danger will come from for the Kiwis on Sunday morning.
I doubt he will be as effective rushing out of the line to spot-tackle as he was against Australia, because Australian referee Tim Mander will maintain a stricter control of the 10m than Kiwi whistler Glen Black.
But Black had a good game in general and we will see plenty more of him in future internationals.
Clearly, Ruben Wiki's troops will need to be on their game if they are to handle the great ball distribution that Long demonstrated.
For me, Long has been the standout player of the tournament and is a great example of the old-style British halfback.
He has all the skills and great acceleration to go with it and will provide his team with a definite advantage around the halves.
I was impressed with Great Britain's constant changing of angles and second-man plays that kept the Australian defence in two minds around the ruck area and out wide.
They are also capable of scoring long-range tries and like to make use of the ball before the defensive line, in contrast to the Kiwi and NRL style of taking the tackler on, then trying to offload.
This is one of the reasons it is vital that Robbie Paul plays halfback for the Kiwis. His vision is badly needed, and he has the experience and talent to provide the kind of link between the backs and forwards that Long offers to Great Britain.
Against Australia, Great Britain played a very short defensive line. If the Kiwis are to win they need to take advantage of that if it is used against them.
A deep and wide attack is the only way to go against that style of defence and the Kiwis have the players to do it, particularly with Sonny Bill Williams running out in the centres.
Playing wide from sideline to sideline will eventually cause the defence to hang loose, and this is when the likes of Paul become dangerous.
The Kiwis will not intimidate this British side and I hope they do not fall into the trap of trying to. They must play smart football.
Backing up will be vital and will provide the breaks.
I'm expecting the lead to change a few times in this game but the team who hold their nerve will win. I have one other major fear - that goal kicking - or the lack of it - could turn out to be a killer blow for the Kiwis.
The Kiwis do not need to prove to everyone how tough they are, they need to show they can play football, and if they do they are in with a chance to win, if they don't they are history.
Kiwis and Tri-Nations fixtures and results 2004
<i>Graham Lowe:</i> Brit grit a warning to Kiwis
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