KEY POINTS:
When I last looked at the odds for the World Cup final at the TAB the Kiwis were paying $6.25 to win and a dollar on the Kangaroos would return just $1.12.
That is a pretty fair indication that the bookmakers agree with the league pundits, the media and 95 per cent of the public in Australia and New Zealand, expecting the Kangaroos to easily run away with the title.
This is about the only thing the Kiwis have going for them. Every time New Zealand have beaten Australia it has been when all interested parties completely write off their chances.
But when you look at the two teams you see that the upset victory that every New Zealand league fan yearns for is very unlikely.
This Australian team, without a doubt, is one of their best ever. Throughout the tournament the players have shown a number of qualities that mark them as special. They have never been pressured nor tested. Man for man, from the hooker to the wings - with maybe just the exception of Manu Vatuvei - the Australians are better than their Kiwi counterparts.
The Kiwis have achieved what everyone from the New Zealand Rugby League to team coaching and management and no doubt the players thought they would in making the final. But right throughout the tournament their error rate has been far too high and if this continues in the final tomorrow night they will get belted.
There is no secret to winning in rugby league and to win tomorrow in Brisbane the Kiwis need to do what every kid running out on a field is told by his coach every Saturday: Complete your sets of six, miss fewer tackles than your opponents do, employ a good kicking game and chase the ball hard.
The Australians have executed this game plan near-perfectly throughout the tournament. To get over them the Kiwis will have to improve 100 per cent.
But regardless of what is said and written beforehand it all comes down to the 26 players who take the field and the impact the four bench men can bring from the interchange on the day. If the Australians turn up with four or five players who are not mentally or physically on their game and the Kiwis turn up with four or five who are motivated to play a blinder then anything can happen.
That's the beauty of sport, anyone can win and on any given day the underdog can get up. Look at Buster Douglas who was the biggest underdog of all time when he took on Mike Tyson in Tokyo and knocked the champ out. Muhammed Ali was a massive underdog when he took the title from George Foreman in 1974.
And earlier this year, the Highlanders were given absolutely no chance in the final Super 14 pool game against the Crusaders but they managed to overturn the champions in a one-off game.
Because they are written off by everyone (hopefully including the Kangaroos players) the Kiwis have an opportunity to cover themselves with glory.
* Daniel Anderson must be feeling the luckiest man alive right now. Just six weeks ago there were no coaching opportunities open to him in the NRL and now he has landed the job he always wanted as coach of the club where he started his career.
Who would have thought that Michael Hagan would throw in the towel, so opening the way for the talented Anderson to step up. His track record suggests he will find success with the hugely talented but badly under-performing Parramatta team.
He will not have to do much buying to get the Eels to the grand final.
