It's about this time every year in the lifecycle of football coaches that the first natural cull begins.
Having evolved from the new season's beginning in March, about now they are either beginning to sprout strong wings to soar from one glorious win to the next, or they've realised that by comparison, a fruit fly will enjoy greater longevity than the span of their own coaching career.
There's something about May that footy coaches dread. This week was a great example, with Blues rugby coach Peter Sloane stepping down - presumably before he was pushed without a parachute.
At St Helens in England, Australian coach Ian Millward paid the ultimate price for serial profanity which obviously offended the notoriously thin-skinned British descendants of the tough men from the coal pits of the north.
Where one door slammed shut, however, another was prised open for former Warriors, and incumbent Kiwi coach Daniel Anderson, who will now begin his own lifecycle in the Super League.
If nothing else, the week reminded me that the lot of a league coach is an unforgiving one and proved yet again that there are only two types of coaches - those who have been sacked, and those waiting to be sacked. It's a cruel career, where names count for little.
There's no bigger legend in Australian league than the great Arthur Beetson.
Big Artie was a powerhouse prop when he played for Balmain, Eastern Suburbs, Parramatta, NSW, Queensland and Australia, and was a popular choice as coach of the Kangaroos to play the Kiwis in the 1983 series.
The Aussies duly won the first test, and the blazer wearers were smiling. But when we beat them in the second test at Lang Park, the knives were out, and legend or no legend Artie was sacked.
It wasn't long before that sentiment seeped down into state level. He was sacked by the QRL as State of Origin coach, the prelude to my appointment as Queensland Origin coach.
It was a double slap in the face for the genial Artie, who I believe has forgotten more than most people know about coaching league.
The tough thing about that whole episode was that Artie found out about it from one of his drinking mates in the pub.
Beetson is a great mate of mine and I was embarrassed about his shabby treatment. But it opened my eyes to the expendibility of coaches, and the limited lifecycle we all potentially have.
The point is if you don't win at the top level you can't expect any mercy. Because certainly in Australia, and it looks like Britain, you won't get any. By comparison in recent years it seems New Zealand hasn't been quite so tough.
The man who gave me my break as a coach in Australia was the late Bob Bax, president of the Norths Club in Brisbane. The day I arrived, he certainly didn't try to paint a rosy picture for me when he said, "We will give you a go, but if you don't succeed we will sack you at the end of the year". And he meant it.
The coach of a national team is not there to develop or bring on players. He is there to win each test match and nothing else matters.
With such short build-ups for each test, it's not even possible to properly coach your players. You've just got to concentrate on firing them up to deliver to New Zealand fans the glory we all seek.
And you can only do this by getting them to do what they can do best.
Forget the two, three or even five-year plans at test level. When the calibre of players is there, as it is now, you just have to win.
Can someone really convince me that players like Ali Lauitiiti, Sonny Bill Williams and Benji Marshall can be coached in the week leading up to a test? Get off the grass. The best you can expect is to channel their enormous talent into a team effort which can collectively, win a game.
The NZRL needs to introduce a coach who is going to deliver short term results, meaning success in each test match. You need to win the one in front of you, not prepare for next year's series.
The NZRL is in an interesting position in having to replace Daniel Anderson as Kiwi coach.
The NZRL is judged by one result as far as respect from other nations goes - did the Kiwis win? As they look for a new coach this is what their criteria should be.
Coaches don't evolve through succession plans or coaching courses - they are either born to it or they're not.
I have a concern that we could end up with a paper coach. By that I mean one who has been through the New Zealand system but lacks the ability to do the job.
Anderson's assistants James Leuluai and Brian McClennan are the obvious front runners.
McClennan has the best record in the Bartercard Cup and that should give him the edge.
He is also a coach who, like his dad Mike, can think outside the square.
Graeme Norton has had a wonderful coaching career in New Zealand and was very much from a similar mould to Mike McClennan.
But again, the NZRL never took advantage of his talents.
A combination of Norton and Brian McClennan seems a good option to me.
The bottom line has to be the NZRL needs a coach who can deliver where it counts - on the field.
If he can do that, maybe his lifecycle is guaranteed to be longer than some of us who still feel we were only passing butterflies.
<EM>Graham Lowe:</EM> Winning all that counts
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