How wrong can you be? But then again ...
A few months ago, I confidently stated the obvious by predicting that the planeload of Lions heading our way would be split into an A team of mainly English and Irish players, and a Welsh-dominated B side. If they were very lucky, a Scot or two might sneak into the 44.
Ooops. The Lions' selection debate has been turned on its ear by the Six Nations, where Wales triumphed and England and Ireland faltered.
The original theory, which Lions coach Sir Clive Woodward was probably banking on, would have created a well-defined test team built around the muscular Poms with a touch of wild-eyed Irish athleticism thrown into the pack, and a smidgen (ie Brian O'Driscoll) in the outside backs.
The All Blacks would have had a fair idea what was coming at them.
The Six Nations results, though, have added more mystery and imagination to the Lions' mid-year tour, not only in selections, but also in the style of their game.
Woodward's MO is obsessive planning, mastering a defensive pattern, and a low-risk attack in keeping with the Neanderthals who inhabit English backlines.
In contrast, there will always be more risk-taking fibres - although less fibres in general - in the Irish and Welsh players.
Despite the Six Nations form, I believe that Woodward will still select more English players in the test side than is being predicted.
He will still suspect that some Welsh and Irish forwards haven't spent quite enough time in the gym for one, and that they won't operate to his meticulous plans for another.
We shall see, but the Lions coach is not one to cower before public opinion.
Woodward - who battles with a mischievous grin that unkind folks take for a smirk - could even enjoy the howls of outrage from Cardiff and so on if men such as the lightweight Welsh flanker Martyn Williams miss out.
If English stalwarts Phil Vickery and Richard Hill, for instance, are fit and in form, would he really discard them?
There's always an element of "I'll show 'em who's boss" about England's World Cup-winning coach.
So to the really big question. If Jonny Wilkinson is even semi-fit, will Woodward still play the Welshman Stephen Jones ahead of him? It's doubtful. Woodward is far more likely to bow to his own sentiments than those of the British pundits.
For now, though - in the glow of a rare Taffy triumph - it is the in-thing to load the prospective team with Welsh players.
The former Welsh forward Eddie Butler, writing in the Observer, picked seven Welshmen to start in the first test. England and Ireland had four each, with Irish lock Paul O'Connell his captain.
The band of men Butler put forward hardly looked fearsome.
So will the Six Nations demise of England, in particular, and Ireland help or hinder the Lions' chances?
With the obvious exception of the 1971 Lions - who were fired by a once-in-a-lifetime explosion of Welsh talent - the dour but technically strong English sides have posed the most serious threat to the All Blacks.
In contrast, Welsh forays here have been famous disasters.
It still seems most unlikely to me that Englishman Woodward would place his reputation, and the outcome of this historical tour, in too many foreign hands.
League book is in safe hands
First, the bad news.
If you hanker after a book on the history of the Kiwis, there are two more years to wait.
Now, the good news.
The project is in the hands of journalist John Coffey, from the Press in Christchurch, who is the only long-serving league devotee in New Zealand newspapers. And with the redoubtable Coffey on the job, it will get done.
The release of The Kiwis, as Rattue is calling it, will be a landmark since maybe only rugby and cricket have well-chronicled pasts.
It will also mark 100 years since the first New Zealand league team played.
The Kiwis' vital statistics are thus - 240,000 words, 432 pages, 290 photographs, maximum $60 price tag, profit to author - zero (more about that later).
Coffey, a West Coaster, began in earnest three years ago at the instigation of administrator and league annual publisher Bernie Wood - another Coaster - who is providing the photographs.
The Kiwis reflects nearly a lifetime of work for Coffey, a club footballer who started researching the game at age 16 when he joined the Press in 1963.
It's also a retrospective project that could drive you mad, and he admits to taking a break after each decade.
"If someone had asked me three years ago to start cold, I would have run a mile," says Coffey, whose work includes the book Modern Rugby League Greats and countless statistical and editorial contributions to annuals and programmes.
As a starting point, he found newspaper reports on every Kiwi test. Around that, he is researching the anecdotes which make up the game's history.
Coffey says: "We wanted to do it because rugby league is a sport without its own history. The modern players aren't even aware of their heritage.
"This is our [rugby's] Men in Black, but it's not as if you can go to old annuals, like rugby union can. There are a lot of loose ends."
Coffey is famously league in a union land. He has long been regarded as the man least likely to camp out for Ranfurly Shield tickets.
I travelled with the roast-chomping Coffey and another journo mate around Britain for the 1995 World Cup, which brought back memories for him of covering the victorious 1971 Kiwi tour.
Ahhh, memory lane, except that most of the landmarks seemed to have become curry houses. Still, a few pesky vindaloo joints didn't stop the yarns flowing about '71.
The Kiwis will tell the stories of player strikes and bans, the great matches and series plus quirky tales.
The word lineout will even appear, although South Island fingerprints are removed from the scene of this crime. This tale concerns the 1975 team to Britain, who snuck on to a large rugby ground to train in union-dominated Bath.
The groundsman strode their way, with increasing fury in every step. Quickly, one of the players suggested they undertake lineout practice to throw him off the scent.
The ruse worked, but the next morning a note arrived stating they were not to darken rugby's door in Bath again.
And finally, to the price of The Kiwis. Unless sponsorship is found, Coffey - like Wood - has turned down any payment to help keep the price under $60, so it is affordable for many league fans. For that, league is indebted to John Coffey.
Quote of the Week . . .
. . . belongs to league commentator Paul Vautin, who came to the rescue as I struggled desperately to find a description for the hair-do belonging to North Queensland Cowboys forward Carl Webb.
Technically, you might describe it as a No 1 cut with a toupe glued to the back of the head. It actually frightened the cat.
But there had to be a description beyond the technical, and Vautin came up with it.
"Carl Webb has his hair cut by the council," roared Vautin, minutes before the four-square frontrower charged 65m for a try against the Bulldogs.
My tip of the week - if the council does happen to cut your front verge in a similar manner, lodge a very strong complaint.
<EM>Chris Rattue:</EM> Don't write off the English ...
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