New Zealand's rowers hope gold medals at this weekend's world championships won't be decided by luck.
The Dorney Lake course at historic Eton has been prone to the vagaries of wind this week.
Yesterday's semifinals were raced in a tailwind and on often choppy water, and there have been days of crosswinds, which make lane draws crucial.
New Zealand have qualified for six A finals - one, the coxed four, is a straight final as there are only six entries - and are out to match or better their four titles at Gifu, Japan a year ago.
They would like their chances of that to come down to skill, and will back themselves if conditions are good. During yesterday's semifinals, crack German single sculler Marcel Hacker, who was in a hammer-and-tongs battle with New Zealand's defending champion Mahe Drysdale, hit a wave and momentarily lost his rhythm.
Strong South African coxless pair Ramon Di Clemente and Donovan Cech stopped dead for the same reason in the semifinal won impressively by New Zealand's world champions Nathan Twaddle and George Bridgewater.
Head coach Dick Tonks is torn between wanting ideal conditions, while also accepting that rowing is an outdoor sport and subject to the whims of nature.
"There is a little bit of luck, but if you're good enough you can handle it," he told the Herald last night.
All four crews who advanced to the finals yesterday impressed.
The top three in each semi advanced and lightweight sculler Duncan Grant was well back early, but steadily made up ground and finished a comfortable third, 3s clear of German Jonathan Koch.
Drysdale, Twaddle and Bridgewater and three-time world champion double scullers Georgina and Caroline Evers-Swindell advanced in the best fashion with victories.
Tonks reckoned Twaddle and Bridgewater were the best of the New Zealand crews yesterday, and it was easy to see why. They turned in a strong, composed 2000m and by the end had the appearance of having gone through a training routine.
The Evers-Swindells had to work hard to hold off Australians Liz Kell and Brooke Pratley in 6m 50.03s, 1.62s up on the Aussies, with fast-finishing Ukrainians Natalia Ryzhkova and Yana Dementieva turning in an eye-catching late run.
"They didn't think they had a very good race," Tonks said. Still, they're alive and in the frame for another title tonight. Georgina Evers-Swindell, in the stroke seat, reckoned the sisters were "never confident" before a big race.
"The Belarussians and the British are going really well this season and the Germans have got strength in depth. But if we're competitive in the last 200m we'll go for it," she said.
Coxless pair Nicky Coles and Juliette Haigh won their repechage with a significantly improved effort on their earlier European form but the defending champions have a scrap ahead against strong Canadian, American and German combinations.
It was a grim day for the coxless four. They dead-heated for third with the United States in 5m 51.24s - a remarkable 0.69s covered the first four at the line - and lost a race-off 3 1/2 hours later.
New Zealand appealed the photo finish decision, then unsuccessfully requested a seven-boat final, which would have put both through to the final.
Tonks recalled that when the squad set off for Japan a year ago they were confident of what could be achieved. This time, he's not so sure.
"The standards have gone up, we're one more year further down the track [to the 2008 Olympics] and one or two Olympians have come back."
But New Zealand are clearly among the powerhouses at present. Tonks gave a hint on his thinking when he spoke of the semifinal work of Drysdale, Twaddle and Bridgewater and the Evers-Swindells.
"They're starting to come right at the right time. We should do fairly well in those three," he said.
Kiwis in A finals
Tonight
* From 10.05pm, live, Sky Sport 3.
* Duncan Grant: Men's lightweight single sculls, 11.55pm.
Tomorrow
* Mahe Drysdale: Men's single sculls, 12.40am.
* Juliette Haigh, Nicky Coles: Women's pair, 12.55am.
* George Bridgewater, Nathan Twaddle: Men's pair 1.10am.
* Caroline and Georgina Evers-Swindell: Women's double sculls, 1.25am.
Monday
* Dane Boswell, Steve Cottle, James Dallinger, Paul Gerritsen, Daniel Quigley (cox): Men's coxed four, 12.45am.
Rowing: Luck the last thing Tonks has in mind
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