But just as important may be the weather, with the reports more volatile than the sprinters themselves.
Trentham has been rated a Soft 7 for much of this week and at one stage was forecast to get 60ml of rain tomorrow morning, which would turn the track heavy - but that was scaled down to 10ml in last night’s forecast.
“It is really frustrating because for all of our recent meetings it has been forecast for heavy rain on the day and it hasn’t eventuated,” says Race general manager of racing Brad Taylor.
“The track is a Soft 6 today [Thursday] and it could be anything from a Good 4 to Heavy if we got all that rain that was initially forecast.”
So smart punters will wait to see how tomorrow’s track comes up and perhaps even more importantly if there is rain during the meeting, which causes the most dramatic changes in track conditions.
Whatever the conditions, the O’Sullivan/Scott team looks certain to play a huge hand as they have Grail Seeker fresh up from winning the Tarzino Trophy in September and last season’s Railway winner Waitak nearing his best form again.
“Grail Seeker has been trialling and working enormous,” says Scott.
“I know she has won the Guineas here on a Soft 7 but we think her best chance this week is on a better track.
“She is so brilliant so she is our best hope if the track comes up good but if the track cuts out of a bit or gets wetter then we think Waitak might be the better chance.
“He obviously has good form on soft tracks, but we think he would handle a wetter track better than many of his opposition.”
There is a huge gap in the pair’s price, with Grail Seeker opening $5 with the bookies while Waitak was out to $10 last night but ultimately tomorrow’s track conditions will be the major factor in the final market.
Luberon has been the find of the spring sprints but would seem to prefer a drier track and is not ideally placed at weight-for-age if she is to continue a wonderful season for Cambridge Stud race mares.
Skew Wiff is one of the proven Group 1 mares in the race but hasn’t been quite as potent over 1200m as 1400m, albeit the tough Trentham 1200m can race more like a 1400m.
Babylon Berlin is the other way, a straight-out sprinting speed machine but you get the feeling she could be vulnerable late. Bonny Lass has been racing a length below her imperious peak of last season, but the sprinting ranks are also stronger this season.
Defending champion Mercurial is long odds this year and that leaves Crocetti as the question-mark horse of the Telegraph, good enough to win but maybe in that middle ground where 1400m is his best distance.
A long strider, the big track should suit him, and he could easily win if he can get into a rhythm from the tricky ace draw.
While the weather confuses the Telegraph, it is a case of wetter the better for staying mare Sassy Lass as she gives the O’Sullivan/Scott team their opening shot at a feature race double in the $80,000 Lincoln Farms Marton Cup.
She was great on heavy tracks in the winter and luckless when second on top of the ground in the Waikato Cup last start and if tomorrow’s track is a Soft 6 or worse she looks one of the bets of the day.
Top Aussie jockeys head to Trentham
Aussie star Luke Currie rides at Trentham tomorrow and he looks set to be joined by a dual Melbourne Cup-winning compatriot later in the carnival.
Currie will bring Australian eyeballs when he partners Skew Wiff in the Telegraph and fellow Victorian Mark Zahra is expected to be at Trentham for the Wellington Cup on January 18.
Zahra rode back-to-back Melbourne Cup winners Gold Trip and Without A Fight in 2022 and 2023 and is one of the most astute riders in the Southern Hemisphere.
He is expected to come to Trentham to partner Wellington Cup favourite Interpretation in the 3200m.
Trained by Ciaron Maher, Interpretation has raced in the last three Melbourne Cups, finishing sixth behind Without A Fight in 2023 and was a luckless second over 2800m at Flemington on Wednesday.
He is booked to come to the Wellington Cup then head north for the Avondale and Auckland Cups at Ellerslie, the latter on Champions Day March 8.
Interpretation is favourite for both the Wellington and Auckland Cups.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
