Mainland Banner faces the toughest test of her career so far at Alexandra Park tonight.
That is the view of her driver Ricky May as the pair prepare for the $30,000 City Of Auckland free-for-all, the feature race on the first night of Auckland Cup week.
Normally when May hops into the sulky behind the champion mare he expects to win - and punters follow suit. But May says the mare's barrier draw on the inside of the second line has shattered his confidence.
It means Mainland Banner could get trapped away on the inside or forced back to last to get a clear trip, from where May says even the freakish mare would struggle to win.
"I think the draw has cost her the race," said May.
Those words will send shivers down those who are going to take the short odds.
"It is the one draw from where I think she probably can't win and, after all, her main aim is the Auckland Cup next week."
As May sees it he has three options, none of which appeal that much.
"If we follow out Onedin Legacy he could give the front away and we would be locked up on the fence.
"Then we could try and push away from the markers but I don't really fancy that.
"The last time she drew barrier one on the second line was when she was beaten in the Nevele R Fillies Final. I pushed away from the inside and got fined $750.
"Nobody else offered to pay that fine for me so I won't be risking pushing away from her in a tricky situation again."
The last option is pulling back to last and having to come three wide to beat speedsters like Imagine That and Napoleon.
"They are good horses and could run very quick halves (800m) if they are in front.
"Not only would they be hard to beat in any race but how hard do you want to attack mid-race when the big test is still a week away?
"She is so good she can do almost anything but the way this race has panned out it will be as hard as winning the New Zealand Cup."
While May's words will hardly inspire punters there is nothing surer than they will still send Mainland Banner out at odds-on.
Her remarkable record since exploding on to the scene 15 months ago suggests she deserves to be so but she faces another obstacle tonight as well - the race is her first on a major trip away from home.
While the indications are she has travelled well there are now a number of lingering doubts which should be enough to see punters at least cover her with a saver or two in Pick6.
For all that, it is hard to tip against her because the best horses have a habit of finding luck at the right times and Mainland Banner is clearly the best pacer in the country so far this season.
If she is to be beaten then Imagine That looks the most likely conqueror.
She has a wonderful record at Alexandra Park and pushed Mainland Banner close at Addington two starts ago. She then bolted away with her next start, suggesting she is back to her best.
She should settle handy, which will give trainer-driver Mark Purdon the option of moving in front of Mainland Banner and making her chase, a rare position for the great mare.
Napoleon is a lethal sprinter who would have been a tight second favourite from a handy draw but should be backable each way from barrier seven.
He has the gate speed to cross his rivals if trainer-driver Barry Purdon elects to try but with this being the first race of a six-race campaign aimed at the A$1.5 million ($1.7 million) Interdominion Final on April 2 he may be eased into the event.
Either way he is at his best in mobile sprint races and should be included in combinations.
Onedin Legacy and Nursemaid are two newcomers to open class racing who have the stamina to handle the jump but it is hard to see them outsprinting all three of the favourites.
Toughest test yet for champ
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