The best chance – and maybe the best horse – Pike takes to Ellerslie tomorrow is Val Di Zoldo (R8, No 4) in the R75 over 1600m.
She has been luckless in her two starts this campaign but that is also the story of her career.
“She is just one of those horses who has had a lot of bad luck in her career,” Pike said.
“But I rate her and I really wanted to sneak her into the Livamol [Group 1] last week.
“So back in class and up to 1600 [metres] she has to be hard to beat, even though 2000 will be her best distance.
“After this, her next start will be back in weight-for-age company at Ellerslie on Melbourne Cup Day, so that tells you want we think of her.”
Pike rates many of his others as each-way chances on the good Ellerslie footing and opts for Slipper Island (R9, No 2) as his next best.
“He was a good thing beaten fresh-up and then a good third last start and I think he is ready to win.”
Slipper Island has barrier 1 and Sam Weatherley aboard in the last race, which is run not long after The Everest in Sydney, with Ellerslie’s later start tomorrow meaning the huge Australian races will splice nicely in between races there.
Lanikai (R2, No 1) is another Pike-trained favourite but he suggests Wind Of Change in R3 is his next-best hope at $5.
While the stable could have a big month ahead, its fastest horse may not be seen until next year.
Poetic Champion was a brilliant 3-year-old winner at Hastings in September, which with subsequent events there now feels like an age ago.
He didn’t see out the 1400m as strongly in the Hawke’s Bay Guineas, transferred to Matamata two weeks ago, and Pike believes he might be smartest keeping the speedster to 1200m.
“He is having two weeks off and then I might aim him at a race like the Telegraph [Group 1, 1200m] at Trentham early in the New Year.
“It is weight for age so the 3-year-olds get good weight relief.”
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.