His racetrack performances have mirrored his physical development, the 4-year-old turning into a beast and probably the best pacer in the country.
But that far from guarantees him victory in his comeback race tonight as he and Mach Shard start on 20m handicaps while Sooner The Better, with Phelan driving, starts on the front line with some hard-running speedsters for company.
Fresh up races for elite pacers are often fraught with danger for punters as few trainers want their horses having a gutbuster to start a campaign.
There is little doubt Merlin is the best horse in tonight’s race and give him the right drag into it over the last 800m and he might blow them away.
But if the field gets into single file, a leader like Sooner The Better or Fernleigh Cash ticks them over at a steady rate and then powers home over the last 800m in 55 seconds, those coming wide and trying to make ground might be on a hiding to nothing.
“That is why these are tricky races and to be honest I don’t think we should be asked to start horses off 20m handicaps fresh up,” says Phelan.
“I am not saying either of them can’t win because we know how good Merlin is and Mach Shard has been working great and if they got dragged up into the one-one then they could win.
“And Merlin is in the great position that if we go too slow he can come sit parked because he relaxes so well there, but it is still hard to win doing that.
“So if I had to opt for one of our three it would be Sooner The Better only because of the 20m head start.”
The stable won’t have things all their own way though with Fernleigh Cash a good beginner and race fit while Jolimont is on his way to open class and Lady Of The Light is a big, rolling mare who could be hard to get around if she finds the markers.
Phelan says their unassuming filly Won And Only (R7, No 3) could take catching in tonight’s $107,000 Caduceus Club Classic, with her last-start win over many of these better than it looked as she burned through the hectic first half of the race yet still held out the swoopers.
That Group 1, like the male 2-year-old Sires’ Stakes heat, are both big fields full of chances so sectionals and early pressure could be crucial factors.
Earlier in the night the Purdon/Phelan stable has two high-class 3-year-olds in the Northern Stakes and while Derby winner Cold Chisel is the more proven Bare Knuckle Up’s race fitness might give him and edge as the stable goes head to head with Arna Donnelly’s four reps.
For all the class of those feature race contenders, Jeremiah (R2, No 6) is probably their best winning chance tonight as he drops down in class.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
