If this blessed and balanced colt can go to a new high tomorrow by beating Telegraph winner Grail Seeker and serious Aussie pro Here To Shock, not to mention most of our other elite sprinters, he will increase his value by millions.
Double down on that in the Australian Guineas in three weeks and we start throwing the “C” word around, as in champion three-year-old.
But first tomorrow, barrier four against the big boys and girls with speedsters all around him to bring a new level of pressure. Trainer Pam Gerard is unfazed.
“I am looking forward to it,” she tells the Herald.
“I want to know how good he really is just like heaps of other people do. “We know he is really good, his times and the way he has been winning prove that but we also don’t know how good the three-year-olds he has been beating are.
“So we will find out on Saturday.
“I think he might need to go to a new level by two or even three lengths but I’m not saying he can’t do that because he does everything so easily.
“If he can beat horses of this calibre then we know we should be going to Australia for the Guineas.”
It is so hard to line up Savaglee’s form against that of Grail Seeker, who has won two Group 1 sprints effortlessly this season, Here To Shock and Magic Millions Guineas winner Bosustow.
The best guide may be flying filly Alabama Lass, who was enormous when second to Crocetti in the Railway two weeks ago, ridden by Savaglee’s regular rider Sam Spratt.
As fast as Alabama Lass is, on their Riccarton form, Savaglee would be favoured to beat her over 1400m at weight-for-age.
So it is fair to assume the best version of Savaglee could have won the Railway and that puts him at least in the same ballpark as Grail Seeker with more scope to improve.
If that is the case and Grail Seeker has to give the three-year-old 1.5kg then can he beat her in the battle of the Machines from Matamata?
“She is very, very good, so it is a great test to go up against her,” says Gerard.
“But I think Here To Shock is at least as good a chance coming over here with that top-class Australian sprinting form.
“I mean, how often do we get two horses from Australia here who both won huge-money races at their last start?”
What could aid Savaglee is his draw, barrier four seemingly giving him the chance to stay handy to the speed and in front of Here To Shock and Grail Seeker, the latter facing potentially being in at least some traffic from barrier two.
But that was exactly how she won the Tarzino back in September, pocketed away in the inner before exploding clear and the Tarzino is the closest thing we have had this season to tomorrow’s 1400m stunner.
Like Savaglee, we may not really know how good Grail Seeker is yet either and after the way our best sprinters have performed across the Tasman in the last five years maybe greater glory awaits her too.
But before then we have the race of the New Zealand season so far tomorrow. And in just over 80 seconds a lot of questions will be answered.
Savaglee
Breeding: 3yo colt by Savabeel from Glee.
Owner: The Oaks Stud.
Trainer: Pam Gerard.
Jockey this season: Sam Spratt.
Career record: 13 starts, eight wins and two placings.
This season: six starts, five wins and one second.
Stakes: $974,975.
Estimated value: $8 million.
Highlights: NZ 2000 Guineas (G1), Levin Classic (G2), Sarten Memorial (G2), Hawkes Bay Guineas (G2), Fairview Matamata Slipper (G3).
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
