KEY POINTS:
Gavin McKeon's feet had barely touched the ground dismounting from third-placed Seachange in last year's Kelt Capital Stakes when he said: "Don't worry, she'll run the distance successfully next year."
Twelve months has done nothing to change McKeon's mind.
He is supremely confident that if Seachange is beaten
in the $2 million richest race ever run in New Zealand tomorrow, it won't be because of the 2040m distance.
"She's just so much stronger.
"That's what we all suspected this time last year and it's happened."
TAB bookmakers had not been as confident about Seachange's ability to stretch to 2040m and had the mare at $5 when Kelt markets were first framed.
But punters produced an avalanche of money that forced the TAB into $2.20 earlier this week.
McKeon wasn't revealing too much about the tactics he will adopt from a horror No13 draw during the short run to the bend out of the home straight from the 2040m starting point.
But clearly he will be pushing forward.
If he has to sit outside the leader on Seachange he won't be too worried, but the only unknown factor will be how much ground he will be required to cover on the mare on the bend out of the home straight before he gets over to be one off the inside rail.
For $2 million, rival jockeys will be giving nothing away.
Most riders would not want to be parked outside the leader without a trail in a major event like the Kelt - McKeon almost welcomes the prospect.
"Some horses wouldn't, but she'll relax if she's facing the breeze," he said.
"It gives me the opportunity to let the brakes off exactly when I want to."
McKeon clearly rates Sir Slick as the horse to beat.
"If Princess Coup gets a miracle run through them from the back and flashes down the outside and beats me then there is nothing I can do about that.
"But at least I can keep an eye on Sir Slick from where I'll be - I'd say he'll lead again."
Sir Slick's rider Bruce Herd is confident of being a threat and is totally unconcerned about drawing wide at No11.
"I won't even worry if we don't lead," says Herd, who is expecting considerable fitness improvement from Sir Slick from when he finished one length behind Seachange in second place in the 1600m Stoney Bridge Stakes two weeks ago.
One of the real features of that Kelt trial was the dashing late charge into third by Matamata mare Princess Coup.
Back runners always have a problem racing Seachange.
From her position close to the pace, she can run an electric last 600m.
Back runners not only have to run even faster to head her off, they often have to do it two and three places wider on the track getting around the middle of the pack - often an impossible task.
That's the problem facing Princess Coup, who has no choice but to drop back from her No12 barrier draw.
Trainer Mark Walker is delighted he has Noel Harris to help solve the problem.
"At least in the Stoney Bridge when the speed backed off just after the middle stages Noel got her out and rolling to give her the chance to run on.
"I won't be offering any advice. You don't give a rider like Noel instructions - he knows how to sum up a race."
Roger James has a strong hand with Gaze and Railings.
Their efforts for sixth (Gaze) and eighth in the too-short 1600m Stoney Bridge were encouraging. "Both have obviously been set for this race and they're both in good order," says Roger James.
"Gaze is at her perfect distance and although Railings would be even better over a little more ground, he has been prepared specifically for this."
Greg Childs is flying back from Melbourne to ride Railings.
* The Pooka and Veloce Bella are the value Kelt runners.
Most would consider the Kelt Capital to be the wrong race for a 3-year-old, but astute trainer John Wheeler has never been worried about operating outside the square.
"I wouldn't say I'm confident of winning, but I'm extremely confident he'll be around the money somewhere," the popular trainer said.
Rider Reese Jones was adamant Veloce Bella would have been third rather than 11th in the lead-up Stoney Bridge but for being stopped in her tracks in the home straight.
Veloce Bella is a class mare who won brilliantly in Rating 94 grade on the first day at Hastings.
