KEY POINTS:
First it was the track, now it's the barrier draw.
As if trying to win a A$1 million ($1.1 million) Stradbroke Handicap without a race in 19 months on an unsuitable wet track wasn't difficult enough, Xcellent has drawn the one barrier his connections were hoping against - No 1.
On a firm track most of the runners would have loved to draw No 1, but in the wet, and particularly for a horse like Xcellent, it is just another hurdle to overcome.
In a capacity 20-horse field, the ace barrier draw is a potential kiss of death to any horse facing tomorrow's conditions.
"Oh well," was the philosophical response yesterday from Michael Coleman, whose job it will be at Eagle Farm tomorrow to find Xcellent the right passage that might allow him to resurrect his remarkable career after his breakdown.
"No, it's not ideal for a backmarker like him," said Coleman.
The best chance Xcellent has was always going to be to work into the clear at the top of the home straight, which will allow the horse to unwind his remarkable finishing dash.
Drawing gate No 1 presents Coleman with the problem of how to work to the outside with a big field around him.
The Matamata jockey says given the tricky scenario he cannot pre-empt riding tactics.
"I'm just going to have to work it out as I go."
Traditionally Xcellent has been slow to leave the starting stalls, but has shown a lot more dash in leaving the gates in the jumpouts he's had this preparation.
"In the Melbourne Cup at his last start he showed improvement. It was the first time he'd jumped away properly.
"I don't know how far away from them [the leaders] he's going to be when we settle down.
"But I'll be trying not to let him get too far off them, it'll just make the job too difficult.
"Mitanni [No 2] and Gold Edition [No 7] have drawn in close to him - hopefully we won't be too far from them."
Heavy midweek rain saw Wednesday's Doomben races and yesterday's meeting at Ipswich abandoned.
The Eagle Farm surface was yesterday officially rated as slow and close to heavy.
Most locals believe a slow rating for tomorrow is all that can be hoped for.
Some have already dismissed Xcellent's chances as a result, but Coleman is not among them. "I wouldn't say he's an absolute duffer in the wet.
"When he was beaten in the AJC Derby the track was a bog - a genuine New Zealand very heavy track.
"He's handled the wet well in the recent jumpouts. I know it's different under the pressures of raceday, but he won't be hopeless in it."
It may not even be that Xcellent handles the footing - what might count against him even more is that a wet track will make the race a more dour struggle and fitness was always going to be the question mark hanging over the New Zealand champ.
To have a horse ready for such an assignment after 19 months without even the benefit of an official barrier trial is a staggering ask.
Coleman confirmed that Xcellent had turned yet another corner with his fitness when galloped at Matamata on Wednesday morning.
"He's pretty close to his best," he said.
If you fancy Xcellent's chances you'll clean up if he's successful.
Even the Queensland TAB was taking no chances with him earlier in the week quoting him at A$10, but with the rain he's drifted out yesterday to A$26 and was even at $16 on the New Zealand TAB.
A$1m Stradbroke
* Xcellent yesterday drew the No 1 barrier, making his already difficult group one task a fair bit harder.
* It will mean that early in the race Xcellent will be buried back along the rails in a capacity 20-horse field.
* Rider Michael Coleman has one bright bit of advice for Xcellent fans - he believes the horse will cope reasonably well with a slow track.
