Racing: Winter treat if Willy can win

Cambridge trainer Richard Dee has not booked his ticket for another sunny start to his winter just yet.

But if Willy Smith runs up to expectations at Rotorua today, he may have to start finalising Brisbane travel plans in the next few weeks.

A win by his promising three-year-old in the $7000 intermediate 1900m means Dee can start getting a lot more serious about attacking the A$575,000 ($618,000) BMW Queensland Derby (2400m) on June 11.

"It's very much pie in the sky stuff at the moment, but if he comes up and performs we'll go," said Dee.

"He's always looked like he would make into a pretty good stayer."

You only had to see his fresh-up run at Matamata over 1400m on February 19 to know what Dee means about the staying side of Willy Smith.

Although he got a slight bump on the turn, the son of noted sprinting sire Volksraad was flat keeping up and beat just five runners home.

It seems his Sound Reason mum Sound Lear has passed on every last chromosome of the family's staying gene, and some.

For that reason, Dee has some concerns about Willy's giant strides being totally suited to the tight Arawa Park today.

In the end, however, the winning edge may just come down to class.

Willy Smith was on the fringe of the country's best three-year-olds in his last campaign, running seventh in the Avondale Guineas and hovering on the ballot for the Mercedes Derby.

Dee knows missing a Boxing Day start was a blessing in disguise now.

The 2400m at that level would have flattened the gelding before he'd even got going and he's a much stronger horse for the short break since December.

Willy Smith has already pushed Xcellent closer than most and with an ounce more luck may have been the only horse to beat the Derby-winning superstar.

The pair met over 1600m at Te Rapa last November and were side-by-side at the tail of the field entering the straight.

But while Xcellent got a clear passage down the outside of the field, Willy Smith was held up twice in the straight.

Willy Smith and today's pilot Lynsey Hofmann weaved their way through the field to still wind up less than three lengths away in third place. "And he's not the type of horse who can change ground and pick himself up again," said Dee.

At least the pace should be solid enough to ensure Willy Smith doesn't run up the back of any of his 12 rivals today.

If Fasaadi doesn't lead, he should hand up to the classy Anne Carina, who risks being trapped wide on the first bend unless rider Mark Sweeney pushes forward from her 11 gate.

Anne Carina hinted a winning run was close with a second-up fourth to Pacific Dancer over 1600m at Tauranga last month. If she runs up to her form this time last year, even a fast-charging Willy Smith may run out of real estate.