Racing: Winning return just a Dream

Don't expect a winning run from Baileys Dream in his comeback race at Cambridge tonight - trainer Steven Reid isn't.

The exceptional 4-year-old has his first outing since a career-worst run in the New Zealand Free-For-All in November. He takes on race-hardened opponents in tonight's $35,000 Cambridge Classic.

But it is not his lack of race fitness that should put punters off Baileys Dream, it is his barrier draw and the stable's attitude to the race.

Baileys Dream has always raced well fresh but Reid says tonight's 2200m event is not just a comeback race but a trial for the next six weeks.

"We were not even sure about starting him here until he worked really well on Monday," Reid admitted.

"So he will be short of his best.

"But he isn't just here for a race. He is here so we can see where he is fitness-wise.

"If he pleases us this week then he will go to Melbourne with Monkey King next Tuesday and race over the Hunter Cup carnival.

"That would be an ideal way for us to lead into the Auckland Cup in March."

So not only is Baileys Dream short of his best because he is being aimed at bigger goals in six weeks, he also faces a horror draw.

He will start from the outside of the front line, a draw made worse by freegoer Supreme Edition drawing the ace.

"With a horse like him at barrier one I can see them pacing 2:43, home in 57 seconds, which would make it impossible for us to make ground from the back.

"But being fresh up, he is not ready to get into a speed duel early so we are in a tricky position.

"The main thing is that he comes through the race well, though, because he has had a few minor setbacks since Addington and we'd love to know he is back on track."

That is a clear warning to punters not to take short odds - or maybe any odds - with Baileys Dream, even though he is a potential open-class superstar.

And it is not just his shortcomings that could lead to his defeat tonight, but the much improved form of Mr Bojangles.

The gelding was incredibly impressive winning the Futurity against similar opposition on this track last Friday, working hard early before racing clear from the trail in the straight.

That confirmed he has finally developed the strength to fulfil his potential.

Mr Bojangles may not be quite as potent from behind the mobile tonight, but is racing so well that he still has to be the horse to beat.

Mr Williams is a very similar pacer to Mr Bojangles in that both will continue to improve with age, and he could even turn the tables tonight after finishing third last week when he got too far back in a 57-second last 800m.

He starts behind a quick beginner tonight and could even settle in front of the other two favourites.

With any luck, Mr Williams will be hard to keep out.

An interesting runner off the second line is last season's 3-year-old of the year, Badlands Bute, who has raced below his best this term.

His latest start was in the Auckland Cup and it is hard to tell whether a series of luckless runs have knocked his confidence or whether he has simply yet to come back to last season's form.

He has drawn handily and could threaten with a peak effort.

* Reid warns punters not to drop La Bella Mafia in the opening race tonight.

The maiden filly cost her supporters a fortune last week when third but Reid says she was below her best for that race.

"She needed that and she did have to go hard early so I expect her to be a better horse this week," he said.

Reid was also not disappointed in stable star Monkey King's distant second at Tuesday's Pukekohe workouts.

The Great Northern Derby winner was thrashed by Tuherbs but Reid is adamant he will improve greatly in time for the opening heats of the Victoria Derby at Ballarat in eight days time.