KEY POINTS:
Betting with the TAB's bookmakers has educated New Zealand punters.
A decade ago no one this side of the Tasman would seriously consider putting real money on a horse paying less than $2.
Today they do, as Australians have done traditionally.
And that's why New Zealand punters see
Seachange's $1.75 for tomorrow's $250,000 Stoney Bridge Stakes as outstanding betting value.
Most agree Seachange, barring shocking luck, looks over the line in the group one feature.
Which makes the $1.75 so attractive.
Two out of every three bets the TAB has taken this week has been for Seachange and the betting agency has been happy to take every dollar of it without blinking or winding the price down.
Here's why - bookmaking is about balancing the book and not about offering odds that necessarily reflect the odds-setter's opinion of a particular horse's chances.
The TAB has massive payout liabilities around Veloce Bella and second favourite Cog Hill - $107,000 in one bet on Veloce Bella - and need as much money as it can take on Seachange to balance its book.
In reality Seachange is probably a $1.50 chance - possibly even $1.40 - but punters are getting overs at the $1.75 because of fiscal balancing.
If Seachange's ownership manager Rick Williams was setting the odds it might be closer to $1.20.
"It's difficult to make a case that she can be beaten," said Williams yesterday.
"We're much more confident about her in this race than we were before the Mudgway Stakes.
"She looks better and if I could have picked a barrier draw it would have been No4 and that's what she got."
Trainer Ralph Manning was at Gisborne races yesterday and proved difficult to contact by cellphone.
Williams said Manning had been thrilled with Seachange's work for the past week.
"That Mudgway win was easier than a lot of people realise. Like she always does, she did only what she had to do to win."
The barrier draw at 1600m at Hastings is always crucial, particularly in major races where jockeys are inclined to ride tactically.
There is an extremely short run to the first bend and horses drawn close to the inside can be in trouble from rivals crossing if they don't hold their place in the first 200m.
Often you see horses spat back along the rails on the first corner.
"The No4 is perfect for her," says Williams.
"She has tactical speed and you know Sir Slick is going to lead and that leading chances like Veloce Bella and probably Cog Hill are going to ease back a fraction."
The easy-to-draw speed map should see Seachange as usual running third or fourth one off the rail, a perfect place for her.
There is potential for difficulty for Seachange that wasn't a factor in the Mudgway and his name is Sir Slick.
Sir Slick failed completely in the Mudgway, but showed with his fighting effort under a massive 60.5kg in last week's $100,000 Merial Metric Mile that he's right back to his best.
In the Mudgway, Seachange quickly claimed the leaders at the top of the straight and was never out of cruise mode.
If Sir Slick leads as expected and kicks hard at the top of the home straight, Seachange might have to work hard to go and get him, leaving her slightly more vulnerable to the finishing efforts of Veloce Bella, Cog Hill, Princess Coup and J'Adane.
This will be a more fascinating race than the Mudgway as the pressure builds towards the $2 million Kelt Capital Stakes in two weeks.
Rick Williams is not sure what to think about the Kelt.
"Ralph is pretty sure the 2000m will suit her this year, but I'm not convinced," he said.
The EI problem in Australia is a major concern for a proposed trip to the Melbourne spring carnival.
"We don't know what protocols New Zealand will put in place. She's a very gross mare. If she was stuck in a quarantine box for six weeks she'd end up so fat you wouldn't get her fit again," he said.
Veloce Bella sidestepped the Mudgway and was stunning in coming from last on the corner to win in lesser grade on the day.
Princess Coup was well beaten in two of Seachange's three races this preparation, but looked great in an exhibition gallop at Taupo.
This could come down to who gets the last run at Seachange.
But a majority of punters don't seem to care who that is - they're delighted with the $1.75.
