KEY POINTS:
Two problems face the Seachange camp: whether the outstanding mare can win the $2 million Kelt Capital Stakes at the 2040m and, if she does, where to head next.
The first question, despite being a million-dollar one, is the lesser of the two issues.
Seachange, beaten narrowly in
last year's Kelt Capital, showed she is almost certainly a stronger chance to stretch her winning to beyond her distance comfort zone with a comprehensive $250,000 Stoney Bridge Stakes victory at Hastings on Saturday.
The signs are there that Seachange is a stronger horse than when beaten last year.
Australia's EI virus has created a difficult situation for the camp, the worse case scenario of which is the end of her magnificent career.
Queensland owner Dick Karreman yesterday reiterated he was not keen to send Seachange to Melbourne for the A$3 million Cox Plate when MAF has not put in place quarantine protocols for returning home.
"If she was to be locked up in quarantine for, say, five weeks she's such an obese mare we'd never be able to get her fit again," said ownership manager Rick Williams.
"When she's not doing anything she puts on 3kg a day even when you don't feed her.
"And, the thing is, there's no guarantee it will be five weeks, it could be three months."
It is almost impossible to send Seachange around in handicaps because of the weight she would get and the only viable weight-for-age options are the 1600m Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham, three weeks after the Kelt, and February's 1400m Group One Waikato Draught Sprint at Te Rapa.
"The only choice we really have is to look at Dubai or England. But then we don't know how long it would take to get her back from England. This EI could spell the end of her career." says Williams.
Dick Karreman, trainer Ralph Manning and Rick Williams are happy to at least temporarily steer away from that shocking possibility by focusing on the Kelt Capital.
"I guess if we win a million-plus dollars in two weeks we won't have to worry about things for three or four days."
What a race the Kelt is going to be - practically all the major contenders are coming to form at the right time.
Sir Slick, second on Saturday, is right back to his best; Princess Coup's late dash into third from last showed the extra distance will suit her on Saturday week; stablemates Railings and Gaze looked ready for the 2040m with their runs and Veloce Bella and J'Adane were both stopped in their tracks in the home straight when about to charge at the leaders.
As much as any number of horses were running on in the Stoney Bridge, suggesting they would get closer to Seachange over more distance, that is not a scenario which always pays dividends.
Seachange will be racing on the pace, can run her last 600m in around, or better than, 34 seconds close to the inside rail and the back runners have to run closer to breaking 33 seconds as well as going around the field wide.
More often than not that is impossible.
The interesting dynamic will be how the Hastings track plays.
When beaten last year, Seachange was inconvenienced by there being a fast lane inside strip against the rails, down which came the winner Legs, which trailed the leader through-out.
The rail was out 4m on Saturday and will be taken back into the true position for Kelt day. That has the potential to create an inside fast lane on fresh ground.
Any horse coming three or four widths wide on the section of the track just outside where the inside running rail was situated on Saturday could find themselves disadvantaged by ground that is considerably more chopped up.
For that reason barrier draws will be important. If Seachange drew wide she could always slot over and sit outside Sir Slick, who looks certain to be the Kelt pacemaker.
But the Cambridge mare's best chance of seeing out the 2040m is getting a trail behind the speed, rather than being parked out in the breeze, and that would require an inside barrier draw.
The impressive feature of Saturday was the ease with which at the 220m she got past Sir Slick, New Zealand's most difficult horse to dive bomb.
* The decision has been made over the weekend to vaccinate all thoroughbreds in Victoria starting this week.
The 10,000 vaccine shots, ordered from France, are expected to arrive in Australia on Thursday and it is estimated it will take seven days to complete the mammoth task.
For a number of complex reasons, many of New Zealand's veterinary leaders are against vaccinating in this country, believing that containment and what they describe as eradication, being the best defence.
Many Australian veterinarians were originally of the same opinion when EI hit that country, but seem to have changed their minds after containment clearly has not worked in New South Wales.
Stringent measures were put in place to prevent EI spreading to Rosehill and Warwick Farm stables after the virus became rampant at Randwick, but authorities put their hands in the air when EI was discovered at Warwick Farm late last Friday.
Racing in Sydney is in dire trouble. The spring carnival has been abandoned and already racing's chiefs are doubting the autumn carnival, including the Golden Slipper Stakes, will go ahead.
The proprietors of the Magic Millions yearling sales on the Gold Coast have abandoned their traditional January date and are hopeful, rather than confident, of holding them in February.
Until the virus hit Warwick Farm, Rick Williams had been on the side of the local veterinarians that containment might work for New Zealand.
I guess all bets are off now.
"I thought that containment as working for them, clearly it's not."
"As much as we've got a problem with Seachange, at least we're lucky we can race at all."
That will all change the moment one horse coughs in New Zealand.
