At this time of the season, especially on a decent Hastings surface, any weight-for-age 1400m race is going to tend to favour those on the speed or at least just off it.
So barrier 15 sounds bad even before you take into account of the last 88 horses to have started from barrier 15 over 1400m at Hastings only two of them have won.
But can we turn the tables on Endless Drama? I'm not sure. It is hard to say yes the way he sprinted at Te Rapa.
As if that wasn't enough to put you off backing the Horse of the Year in waiting tomorrow, Melody Belle's career record from wide draws is almost as bad. She has won 11 of her 21 starts but divide her record into the times she has drawn inside barrier seven and outside and Melody Belle's stats are jarring.
Melody Belle has started from barriers one to seven on 12 occasions for 10 wins, her only defeats from good barriers coming when taking on open class sprinters as a December 3-year-old two years ago, one of those being in the Railway.
So a well drawn Melody Belle is the punter's queen, with her 10 wins even when well drawn coming at an average dividend of $7.10.
But then there is the other Melody Belle, who like most other horses, has an understandably poorer record when drawn in the outside half of the field. Only in her case, it is remarkably different. She has won just one of her nine starts when drawn outside barrier seven and only placed in two others. So in six of her nine starts drawing in the wider half of the field she hasn't run a place.
With her superior fitness over many she faces tomorrow and her sheer class, Melody Belle should run top three tomorrow and can definitely still win but Richards says he doesn't quite know how. "The draw really hurts us, obviously," he admits. "But we won't bog Michael (McNab, jockey) down with instructions.
"He rode her perfectly at Te Rapa from her wide barrier and got the one-one so he will be positive again.
"But can we turn the tables on Endless Drama? I'm not sure.
"It is hard to say yes the way he sprinted at Te Rapa.
"We are happy with our horse and there isn't much we can do about the draw. But yes, it makes things a lot, lot harder."
Richards says the returning 3-year-old Equinox, who resumes in race five tomorrow, is a class act with a touch of high-class Australian sprinter about him but he does warn punters the plans are for new rider Jonathan Riddell to look for cover over the 1200m, which could leave him vulnerable to the tempo of the race.
But draws, tempo and being fresh up all taken into account, Richards is still expecting a big performance from high-class mare Avantage when she resumes at Ruakaka tomorrow.
The stable has Australian spring aspirations with Avantage, maybe even the A$7.5 million Golden Eagle in Sydney, and chose Ruakaka as her kick-off point in hope of a confidence-boosting win.
"She has had a couple of trials on wet tracks but we want to get her back to the dry and she will be able to show her class. So while fresh-up races can be tricky, she is working well enough to go a big race."
Overcoming barriers
• Melody Belle faces another wide barrier draw in the $200,000 Tarzino Trophy at Hastings tomorrow.
• Her win-loss percentage is almost reversed depending on whether she draws well or not.
• Trainer Jamie Richards has another former Karaka Million winner in Avantage returning at Ruakaka tomorrow.
