KEY POINTS:
Graeme Rogerson picked the right weekend to spend back in New Zealand last Saturday.
He was at Ellerslie to see stable runner Russian Conquest take a narrow win off hot favourite Yao in the $50,000 Foal Stakes.
And on television he saw Vegas Showgirl dispose of the opposition in the Galaxy Stakes at Trentham.
But not everything pleased the transtasman trainer - he thought Sable would win the open staying handicap at Ellerslie.
Sable failed by only one length to pick up Twinkling, but gets her chance to turn that form around in tomorrow's $50,000 Phillips Fox Cornwall Handicap at Ellerslie.
There is only .5kg difference in favour of Sable this time, but of greater significance will be whether tomorrow's predicted rain for Auckland arrives.
Five of Sable's six wins have been on rain-affected footing and with the track at Ellerslie last weekend offering surprisingly good footing, she was not perfectly suited.
If the rain eventuates before the time-honoured Cornwall, Sable will be greatly suited.
Co-trainer Stephen Autridge has no issues with Sable backing up in seven days.
"She's right on her game - spot on," he said. "All we want is one shower of rain."
Nordic Dancer could be the value runner.
She found the footing a touch too good when finishing midfield in the Rotorua Cup last start, a better indication of her chances here being her gritty win in soft conditions at Tauranga the start previous.
Nordic Dancer races a little dour, but that will be the type of horse required to win this if it rains.
Twinkling does not seem to mind what the conditions are.
After getting back and into trouble in several of her races, Twinkling was, under instructions, ridden forward by Rogan Norvall last Saturday and it was the winning of the race.
Under the different weight structure, Twinkling drops .5kg for this race and looks well placed.
If the footing - 2.6 and just dead yesterday - remains reasonably good, Mac Five comes right into calculations.
She looked a winning chance when she loomed up to the leaders Balmuse and Sculptor 350m out in the Rotorua Cup and wilted only in the final 100m.
That was only the second race of her current preparation and is likely to have topped her off.
A barrier trial victory at Cambridge on Tuesday will have ensured a high level of fitness for Mac Five.
Baha and Tinkerbeel are interesting lightweights after impressive efforts in the lower grades.
Baha has been finishing his races off with particular dash and although Tinkerbeel has been racing at a much lower Rating 76 level, she looked good missing the start and still winning here last weekend.
Apprentice allowances are very significant at this time of year and the top of the handicap in the Cole N Co Chairman's Trophy has a vastly different look as a result.
Cog Hill, originally on 60.5kg, will drop to 57.5kg with Tasha Collett aboard, Don't Ya Lovett (59kg) to 55kg for Danielle Johnson and Mi Jubilee (55.5kg) to 53.5kg with Daniel Hain in the saddle.
The relativity among the trio does not chance a great deal, but it makes them an awful lot closer to the remainder of the runners in the weights and therefor strong chances.
Co-trainer Richard Collett says he is unsure how Cog Hill will perform in his first run since late October.
"He had a trial at Avondale and won it with Tasha making him do a fair bit.
"But we've had issues getting the bulk off him because it's been so long since he was race fit and we'll be guided where he goes from here after seeing how he races.
"Under saddle he hasn't looked that sharp."
Collett said the stable has not ruled out putting Cog Hill on a flight to Brisbane if he performs up to his ability tomorrow.
