KEY POINTS:
You're kidding.
That's the envelope you need to put this weekend's weather predictions in.
An easterly storm forecast to pass through Auckland late Friday and early Saturday is devastating news for the richest horse race ever run in New Zealand - Saturday's $2.2 million Telecom New Zealand Derby.
That'll be the third straight major Saturday race meeting hit by rain.
Two weeks ago, the Derby lead-up Championship Stakes day at Ellerslie was run on a wet track after Friday rain and last week's Matamata Breeders Stakes day was blown apart with more scratchings than starters in many races.
Long-range New Zealand weather forecasts used to be woefully inaccurate.
But last week, almost from Sunday night, and certainly from Monday, predictions were for heavy rain in the upper North Island from late Friday afternoon.
The Met Service got that right almost to the hour from at least four-and-a-half days out.
Does that mean - taking the law of averages from horse racing - that this week's forecast will be wrong?
If you found everyone that wanted the prediction to be accurate, you could hide them all in a telephone booth.
Top of everyone's wish list is that the weather forecasters are out by 24 hours.
Matamata trainer Mark Walker, who lines up Tell A Tale, puts it best.
"Surely we're not about to run the richest Derby in the Southern Hemisphere on a wet track," said an exasperated Walker.
The Ellerslie track was a dead 4 late yesterday.
Walker went as far as to say he wouldn't start Tell A Tale if the track rating got to heavy.
"I'd run him on a slow track, but not if it gets heavy.
"There's always the option to take him to Sydney."
The prospect of one of the favourites scratching from a domestic race worth $2.2 million and heading instead to Australia is unthinkable.
Other trainers were philosophical.
"We're probably all in the same boat," said Dawn Williams, co-trainer of southerner The Meista.
"We'd love to see a decent track, but at least the horse is fit and strong."
Australian runner Coniston Bluebird is the interesting runner.
Many of the stock of his sire Scenic manage wet tracks, but not all.
"He handled it okay in the slow when he was third in the Championship Stakes," said a representative from Bede Murray's stable from Sydney yesterday. "But I don't know about anything worse than that."
Bede Murray's best horse, Universal Prince, was also by Scenic and he could not manage rain-affected footing.
Coniston Bluebird sat three wide for most of the Championship Stakes and was not far from Down The Road and The Meista in the closing stages.
The Derby will feature two Australian jockeys.
Trainer John Wheeler said yesterday he had engaged Victorian rider Danny Brereton to ride Court Ruler.
And Steven Arnold is also flying in from Melbourne to partner Easy Ryder, who was purchased on Tuesday from Roger James' Cambridge stable by clients of David Hayes.
Apart from $2000 on the Derby favourite Jungle Boots at $6.50 yesterday, there were no dramatic betting moves at the TAB.
"With the prospect of rain on the day, the main bets from punters were with the longer-priced runners," said TAB bookie Thad Taylor.
"There has been money for Puttanesca and The Spaniard and we've trimmed Puttanesca in from $41 to $31.
"But, overall, the money has been well spread."
Xcellent, the stunning winner of the 2004 edition of the Derby who was retired last season, will lead the field out on to the track on Saturday.
It will be the first public appearance by Xcellent since he broke down badly after winning at Trentham in January last year when looking on the verge of regaining his best form.
"This is a chance for everyone on course to see one of New Zealand's greatest racehorses," said ARC director of racing Andrew Castles last night.
"We thank the Xcellent partnership and the Moroney stable for their support in making this appearance. "
Derby sponsor Telecom has produced significant memento trophies for the connections of each runner in Saturday's showpiece.
The Auckland Racing Club has set aside the Guineas Room and has offered the connections of each Derby runner a table of eight for a complimentary race-day lunch.
