Racing: Weight a hefty factor in Taranaki Cup

Wait A Sec will not be upset by any rain tomorrow. Photo / Trish Dunell

The old line that weight stops trains is right up there with unicorns, but it will stop horses.

Weight rules the biggest race in New Zealand tomorrow, New Plymouth's $80,000 Platinum Homes Taranaki Cup — it will almost certainly decide the result.

The question facing punters is will the topweights successfully carry their big imposts. Authentic Paddy, Wait A Sec and Scapolo have earned their 60kg, 60kg and 59.5kg, but their problem will be that the two main dangers Seraphim and Brighton, are down on 53kg.

The 7kg and 6.5kg differential is substantial and will become even more important if the significant projected rain hits the Taranaki track.

If that happens Scapolo may become the popular tip despite his big weight, which he is well used to. He has been around so long it's easy to forget just how good he can be given the right conditions. He has won 18 of his 61 races, but more importantly his record in the heavy is 15 starts for 10 wins and four seconds. In slow conditions he is three wins from eight runs.

A dead track rating would suit Seraphim and Brighton best. The daughter of Caulfield/Melbourne Cup winner Ethereal, Seraphim has come solid as a 5-year-old with wins at each of her last three appearances. She jumped from R75 to win in open company at Awapuni last start and this is another step up again, but she is a mare on the rise and the Ramsay/Ritchie stable can do little wrong.

Trainer Nigel Tiley tipped Trackside Television viewers into Brighton winning on his home track at Pukekohe last start, declaring that the more fancied stablemate The Justice League had missed a piece of work and could be vulnerable late. The Justice League gave Brighton a lovely trail up and did wilt in the closing 200m with Brighton forging clear.

From his No 12 barrier Brighton will not get the same luxury passage, but he is fairly tough and on his weight level is capable of going close.

Authentic Paddy won the Group 1 Zabeel Classic on January by setting a moderate pace and outsprinting the field in the closing stage. He did not get the same favours when posted outside the pace at Trentham last start, fading out late. The No 18 barrier here under 60kg looks ugly and he will need some breaks to get the money again. Trudy Thornton probably has few options but to slide forward early and get on the pace.

Wait A Sec is tough and brave and in career best form. He will not be upset by any rain.

Juvenile Bit Lippy deserves to land his first win in the $70,000 Phoenix Park Classic at New Plymouth. The Matamata gelding has been stakes placed in each of his three raceday appearances. In two of them, at Pukekohe and Ellerslie, he has stormed home late to take ground off talented filly Melt. There is some real emerging talent in this race, but any one of those three efforts would take him close here.

At Matamata today the best bet would appear to be Into The Groove who ran home strongly into second on debut at Avondale after covering plenty of extra ground. The High Chaparral filly in the Baker/Forsman team is one to follow.