Hold your breath on the weather for today's Tauranga meeting.
The best chance for a dollar remains with predicted showers staying away.
With that scenario, useful opportunities include rising stars Prince Ottwood and Emerald Dream.
Prince Ottwood is one of the bright emerging stayers who could have a high rating by the end of the autumn. He was beaten favourite when he could finish only fifth on Melbourne Cup day at Ellerslie, but the run was not a disaster. His earlier efforts, including an amazing last-to-first at Ellerslie, are a much better guide to this. He has won on soft footing, so perhaps a few showers will not affect him greatly, but his enormous stride looks suited to firmer footing as it was the day he won at Ellerslie. My Willie Montague failed badly when expected to go close at Ellerslie last time, but has ability and should be given one more chance.
Preferred Lies (No5, R2) looks a filly of promise and after two minor placings in good fields from only two attempts, looks poised from a good barrier draw to quit maidens. She has shown a fighting tendency in both her races.
Emerald Dream (No3, R4) looked a filly of enormous talent last season and resumes as a four-year-old mare in a race that should suit her. She was patiently handled by Roger James last season and this race should springboard her to better things. Biennale (No1) has always looked smart. She impressed winning at Ellerslie two starts back and subsequently came from a fair way off the speed to take third at Te Rapa. The No 1 barrier draw, provided any rain has not made the inside running dodgy, should suit her.
If you take the view Hero's (No1, R6) failure in the Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham was not a oncer, then save on She's A Meanie (No9) in the big race at Tauranga. She's A Meanie looked a next-upper when she finished a close fourth behind Furnish at Ellerslie last start and this step up to her pet 1600m distance puts her right in the frame. No doubt Hero is the class act of the field, but watch the mare storm home if the track is dry.
The prospect of a worsening track makes the 3-year-old fillies race very tough. Butterscotch (No1, R8) is all class, but on a track which is cutting up her clear 57kg topweight will be even more pronounced. You have to include her regardless of the conditions, but save on Ballina Kate (No2) and Spirit Of The Nite (No6). Both have the talent to take this, particularly under the handicap conditions.
Mick (No11, R10) is one of the most impressive of those who have left maiden ranks in recent months, but he has a big weight on his shoulders this time - to overcome Paul O'Sullivan's shocking run of bad luck lately. Horses don't know that though. Give him the benefit of the doubt.
Without being unkind, the New Zealand Cup field at Riccarton is ordinary. Java Siang (No10, R7) is going to take beating, but you have to wonder that if she manages to win, she will be taking one of our icon races without having previously won an open class race. She won't know that when she walks in the barriers.
One of the better bets is Kiwi mare Platonic in the 7.10 pm at Sandown in Melbourne. Her second to fellow New Zealander Sequel at Flemington on Derby Day was outstanding given that where she was forced to make her late bid was the worst part of the track. Dropping back from 1600m to 1500m would not normally be ideal for a solid finisher like Platonic, but the Sandown track has a fierce uphill rise in the home straight which will suit her style.
Racing: Weather could be key to fortunes of Prince Ottwood
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