Racing: Wall Street a likely pick

Show Up is running with less weight this time out. Photo / Supplied

New Zealand punters are only gradually getting used to the idea of backing short-priced favourites.

Australians cannot get enough of them.

But in New Zealand punters traditionally steered away from the $1.80 to $2 shots in favour of looking for more value.

Generally to their detriment. Although not always, the $2 is often more value than the $10 chance and at least half the time a good thing.

Last week the Aussies fell over themselves taking the $1.30 around champion mare Black Caviar.

Okay, horses can break legs, but Black Caviar probably needed to break two of them to be beaten. They simply put three times as much on as they would have on a $2 pop - a safe bet when they are as close to over the line before the start as Black Caviar was.

This week the same punters have clamoured to take the $1.65 around unbeaten colt Sepoy in this afternoon's A$1 million Blue Diamond Stakes in Melbourne, even though he is not the certainty Black Caviar was.

Which brings us to Wall Street.

He opened at $2 on Thursday for this afternoon's $200,000 Haunui Farm Stakes and shortened into $1.90 by yesterday morning.

He is great value if he stays close to that price. You just cannot imagine him being beaten. Class mare Keep The Peace, who beat Wall Street in the 1400m Mudgway Stakes in the spring, will put in a valiant effort, but over 1600m and with a run behind him this campaign and a perfect barrier, Wall Street is the goods.

The danger is he will shorten in to something like $1.70 or even $1.60. That will not change his chances of winning.

The programme at Matamata looks a little more difficult.

One of the better bets looks to be local Savabill (No1, R5) in the $50,000 Waikato Stud Slipper. His run for fifth - from last on the bend - in the Karaka Million was fabulous. You do not often see juveniles make lightning dashes as quickly as Savabill did and although he will probably get back again from a wide gate, the small field and overall easier opposition are in his favour.

Anabandana's (No1, R7)Eclipse Stakes victory was one of the highlights of the Ellerslie Christmas carnival, doing it tough and still outlasted the others.

She takes on her own sex this time in the $100,000 Swap Contractors Breeders Stakes and despite facing promising types, is entitled to favouritism. What beats her will win. Watch for an improved run from Miss Upstart (No2).

The remainder of the programme is not easy. In the first Chaparral Lass (No11) is worth a look. She will find this R70 a lot easier than chasing King's Rose around in stakes grade at Te Rapa last time. She looked smart getting home strongly in her previous three races and will appreciate the first step up to 2000m today.

Nuits St Georges (No6, R2) is talented, but he might come up a bit shorter than his actual chance. He showed in being beaten favourite at Te Rapa two weeks ago that he has a bit to learn.

He can definitely win, but may not be value if he gets in as thought at $2. If Desert Lad (No7) is $5 a place he's worth a small look. One win from 27 starts does not excite, but he has been 13 times placed and did not get a lot of luck last time.

Race 3 for the 3-year-olds is a beaut race, but it is a bit of a punting nightmare.

Local filly Magic Briar (No5) faces plenty of opposition, but she was not far behind the best fillies in the spring and who can forget her 1000 Guineas placing, which she unluckily lost in the inquiry room. She has drawn out here, but is worth a look if she comes up at each-way odds, around $5 or $6. Goldminer (No3) has been underrated and local Mr Spock (No1) is right on top of his form. Our Squeezer (No7) is another not out of it.

Show Up (No7, R4) is not big and was beaten under 58kg at Pukekohe last start, but comes in here with a more comfortable 55.5kg. Once again there are a few chances in this race despite the small numbers, but she will give a good sight. Hinemoa (No5) has always been underrated and has finally come solid.

Fleur De Lune (No5, R6) is one of the most promising up and comers in the north. Her record is two wins and a third from just three races and probably should be unbeaten.

She took it to the opposition at Te Rapa last start and they never looked like running her down. She goes up another grade, but she looks the goods. Gendarme (No1) and Make A Wish (No6) should be included in multiples.

The last three races are very tough. Pentire Lad (No5, R8) is probably the best horse in this field, but he mixes his form. Each way in that race Kitt And Miss (No8) might be the go.

Race 9 is a hands-up race for this column and visitor Rollo (No2, R10) is worth a look in the last.