Racing: Wahid vulnerable if Hastings conditions improve

We're not going to know what type of track were dealing with for Hastings until this morning.

And that makes a massive difference to several races and in particular the $1 million Kelt Capital Stakes.

Unless the track comes up close enough to good, which seemed doubtful yesterday, Wahid is probably the most vulnerable of the favourites.

Provided the footing does not become slow, Pentane and Seachange are still the two to beat, but the fact that the track will not be firm, several others, including Legs and Hurrah, need to be considered.

And that's not because of the footing itself, more that it will change the way the race is run. There will be no electric speed and it should better suit those coming from off the pace.

For the want of a better term, the race will be deadened down.

For that reason and for the fact that he will be less inconvenienced if the track is noticeably affected, Pentane narrowly gets the nod, but it is never easy to tip against Seachange.

She will fight until she drops and if Pentane is able to get past her late, he'll go home a tired horse.

The Kelt was always going to be a difficult race to tip especially if Seachange drew wide and the midweek rain has turned it into a nightmare.

To easier things, Taiko (No7, R1) looked stiff when he ran out of gaps in the home straight on the middle day of the carnival after things went wrong on the first day. If there is justice he should get punters home in the first. All That Jazz (No13) was put out of the race in the Alberto incident here two weeks ago. He drops back to essentially a one-win race and being by Montjeu he will be helped by an off track. He looked the goods clearing maidens.

Kays Awake (No5, R2) was another favourite who missed a late run the same day as Taiko. Singapore-bound Andrew Calder should be able to put her in the right place from the No 2 barrier and the drop back from 1400m to 1200m should suit her. Pinmdown (No10) had to cover extra ground in a very fast race when resuming on the first day at Hastings and did well to finish 3.25 lengths from Kays Awake. He should be closer to her this time. Pulcinella (No11) is the class act of the field, but she is resuming and trainer Don Sellwood feels she will improve with the race.

Race 3 is confusing, but Shemozzle (No5), tipped here at $23 last start, was close enough to a good thing beaten after Grant Cooksley twice got blocked for racing room. Put her and Sabayon (No8) in all multiples.

Cross Lease pinched a home-straight break on Superalloy (No1, R4) at Ellerslie last week and under 58kg he couldn't pick him up. He has 58kg again, but this race is likely to be run differently. Fresh runners Our Mavourneen (No4) and The Silence Sir (No13) make it interesting.

With his good record on winter tracks, last week's Mitchelson Cup winner Garden Party (No3, R6) looks the logical winner here, but look for a big run from John Wheeler's stayer Pentathon (No7). His one run since returning from Brisbane will have him sharper for this and its the type of race he can win. If King Johny (No6) does nothing here there will be a big question mark, but he's worth including one more time.

Race 8 is tricky, but the softer the footing the better the chances of Ben Hogan (No7). He is running great races and the rain will help him.

The sprint has potential to be a trap race. With 60kg, Cog Hill (No1, R9) is a do you, or don't you proposition. For the $100,000 stake he's almost worth the risk. Pinprick (No10) is stepping up in class, but he's also dropping from 57kg to 52.kg.

Two favourites late in the day stand out at Matamata.

Punt Higher (No3, R9) is due to get back on the winner's list. He got no favours at Ruakaka last start, getting back and running on nicely late to be not far off Ring OF Fire, one of the favourites for the Metropolitan Handicap in Sydney today. Whatever beats him should win. Prangelica (No7) is lengths better than her mystifying performance at Paeroa last start when beaten favourite and Vamperalla (No6) is a trifecta must.

It's never easy when 3-year-olds race older horses at level weights or worse at this time of year, but Mon Reve (No6, R10) is classy. He fought hard against Jokers Wild on the first day at Hastings, then got badly checked when Alberto lost Opie Bosson the middle day. Far Too Much (No4) and Danska Mill (No1) have ability. Anchor all your bets around the trio.

It's a long time since we've seen such a strong maiden line-up as Race 1 at Matamata. Trudy Tee (No13) tailed the small field, but she was only two lengths from Magic Cape in a strong 3-year-old field when resuming at Ruakaka. She should be fitter for that and appeals back in maiden class. But there are plenty to test her. Svaneke (No11) made an impression coming from a long way back over 1200m to finish fourth on debut at Gisborne. The 1400m is going to suit better. Stablemate Keep Alight (No15) has had blinkers added since a well beaten effort when resuming and it might make a difference.

Dab (No9, R4) will be all the rage and the Giant's Causeway filly Santagostino (No12) is worth considering on debut. Castle's Burning (No1) was backed and only narrowly beaten on debut at Paeroa.

King Of Ashford (No1, R6), Arlingtonboulevard (No6) and Samurai (No16) look the way to go in the Matamata Cup and watch for some possible improvement in former southerner Fiscal Madness (No8). Blinkers go on today and it might just fire him up.

The same applies to Aftershock (No10, R7) who should be assisted by blinkers and the step up to 1600m. That Te Aroha win was no fluke from Raphael (No2). He's been a heartbreaker, but he's got real ability.

New Zealand is set for a big day in Australia. Ring Of Fire is going to give a great sight in the Metrop in Sydney and Sphenophyta will go close with new rider Danny Nikolic aboard in Melbourne. Sphenophyta needs to win this weight-for-age race to get into the Caulfield Cup and if he does, he'll win that too.