KEY POINTS:
It might have been just a maiden race, but Veloce Bella's winning performance at Ellerslie on October 28 was one of the most impressive in recent weeks.
It was not unexpected.
Veloce Bella looked very smart in a couple of runs in powerful juvenile company last season and completely swamped her opposition when resuming at Ellerslie. The last 150m of that raced showed real potential.
There is smart talent against her in Race 9 at Rotorua this afternoon, but she won't disappoint provided she is not one of the handful that fail to handle Rotorua at their first appearance. Take the risk - there is always next start.
The easing of the Rotorua track with showers in recent days will greatly assist Madamvizelle (No2, R2). She is a very capable mare given the right conditions and she will certainly find this easier than the fillies and mares stakes race won by Rosetti Bay last start. She should get the perfect run from an inside barrier.
Yee Ha (No6, R3) impressed making a winning debut for John Wheeler at Wanganui last start, getting an ordinary passage and still landing the money. The Pins gelding could be above average and we'll find that out today, because there is a bit of ability around him.
Kaapsise (No5, R5) is pretty useful and might be the value in a six-horse field. He should be close to his best again after one start back this preparation and has form when there is a bit of rain around. This is a tricky race with every runner a genuine hope. The 2kg Craig Grylls takes off Star Of Rio (No1) will be important in the closing stages.
The overnight weather will have the last say, but if the track (3.3 dead yesterday) is affected by the rain then Kristov (No1, R6), good as he is, may not be value. He can still win if the track is "off"', but at skinny odds he is probably not worth the risk. It makes it something of a tough race to go outside him, but if he fails then Sir Slick (No2) will go close to getting that win he so deserves. Cape Princess (No10) won't mind any rain.
Promethian (No1, R7) is well bred and this race should provide an indication of where she will get to this season. The 58kg is a tough ask for a mare, but it does not look to be a particularly strong field. Lovemedo (No2) is dropping back in class and Craig Grylls takes 2kg off her back. She is the saver.
Grylls and trainer Murray Baker combine again in the following race with Fascinator (No1, R8). She has been all around the money and three starts back on this track was close up behind subsequent stakes winner Ballymore Lass. Altesino (No5) is an improver.
A couple of the team of Dawn and Peter Williams raced a touch below their best on the first two days of the Riccarton meeting and might be worth another look today.
The Raj (No2, R6) is one of them. When resuming for the season last Saturday he made ground nicely at the end of 1600m and will appreciate the step to 1800m with Michael Coleman in the saddle. His record at his second run in a preparation is good.
Wazawatsyn (No7, R5) is better than her fifth placing last Saturday tells you. It was her first race for a month and only her second this season and she might be better for it.
Benelli (No1, R8) won three starts back on this track and looked like a horse really going places. He went so badly last week that you couldn't even say the drop back in distance to 1200m caused it, but knowing his ability, he is worth another try today. The 1400m will certainly help.
Unless the track becomes quite bad, it's difficult to predict the demise of Jokers Wild (No2, R9) in the 2000 Guineas. If he isn't suited it will make it a nightmare race for punters.
* The New Zealand Cup: 1 Pentathon, 2 Coup Triumphal, 3 Shamrock Star, 4 Dimondsontheinside.
