With history and weight against Golden Slipper winner Vancouver in the San Domenico Stakes, the Gai Waterhouse stable has two ready-made excuses.
However, if the matter-of-fact confidence of Tulloch Lodge is anything to go by, the star colt won't need them.
No Slipper winner has claimed the San Domenico since Tierce 24 years ago, although only four others have tried.
Fewer than one-third of the past 30 Golden Slipper victors have scored first-up as 3-year-olds, fuelling a belief among some that the 2-year-old showpiece burns out many of its winners.
Vancouver must also contend with topweight of 60kg and an awkward barrier draw in a race which is the beginning of a campaign destined to run deep into the spring.