Racing: Value in hard to pick Easter feature

Bet you can't find one runner you would be happy putting your life on the line to say couldn't win today's $150,000 Easter Handicap at Ellerslie.

That's not unusual - every year the Easter is New Zealand's toughest feature race to pick.

The best chance would have been if the rain had continued - at least that would have put half the field out of contention.

Thursday night's heavy rain did little to the Ellerslie surface. Course manager Jason Fulford said the track rating yesterday morning was 2.6, just into the easy range and was drying quickly with yesterday's hot, fine conditions.

"Without rain or showers overnight we should be looking at a 2.4 track tomorrow," Fulford said.

Given that, there appears to be some value prices on the TAB's Final Field betting book, even allowing for the evenness of the field.

The $16 last night about Silky Red Boxer looks useful. Easters are tough races to win, particularly when you have to guarantee clear space ahead to make a driving finish, but if the track is reasonable and Silky Red Boxer finds the room he needs, he should be right in the finish.

This is one trifecta you will thoroughly deserve if you get it. Probably the best approach is to anchor one to run 1,2,3 and take five or six around it. Better to go wider for a lesser percentage of the ticket than to miss out - this trifecta has the potential to be huge. Maroofity has been in great form, but I'm prepared to take him on. If he wins this in front with 56.5kg it will be a monster performance. In handicap order, Calveen, Bhandara, Rockabubble, Penitentiary, Tickle and Rapid Kay are solid trifecta hopes. If rain arrives back, Rapid Kay is the one.

Sheka (No 5, R3) looks a very good bet. One of the form fillies of the spring, she resumed from a spell against high flyer Mr Multiwin over 1200m on this track recently and, after being checked early, flew home for a remarkably good third. The 1400m and the sting being well out of the track are big results for Sheka. The only negative is an outside barrier draw, but Noel Harris is the man you want on in those circumstances. Kew (No4) looks promising.

Shemozzle (No 7, R4) disappointed in her first few starts after a stunning gallop during Breakfast With The Stars at Ellerslie's pre-Cup bash, but she came back with a rush in winning by a margin on this track last start. She has the ability to continue that form now she has come solid and she should prove difficult to keep out. The stable has lofty plans for her.

Ornate (No 9, R5) turned in a good third at Avondale last week for Blyth Tait and is expected to be improved for that run. She displays useful potential for a stayer and from the inside barrier should get a nice drag along.

You have to take the punt Julinsky Princess (No 2, R6) is fit for what will be her first start since finishing third to Justa Tad in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton in November. She is the type to race well when fresh and in that state she should be able to take advantage of her rails barrier position. Darcybee (No 1) won easily here last week and has race fitness on her side against Julinsky Princess.

Willy Smith (No 5, R8) is getting close to a win. He ran home nicely against Anden on this track last week and should find this field a touch easier. Surreal (No7) has always looked like a stayer and she should take advantage of her first step up to 2100m and be running on strongly.

Octapussy (No 4, R9) will appreciate the step back from group one class at weight-for-age and set weight affairs to race in a handicap. At 55kg she has only 1kg above the minimum and the step back to middle distance racing will be a big plus for her. Viz Vitae (No 5) did well when narrowly beaten into third behind Kerry O'Reilly at Ellerslie last start. That day he looked to be one of many horses just starting to feel the very firm tracks and the midweek rain will assist his chances.

Very good field in the last, but Filante Etoile (No 3, R10) looks extremely well placed. She did well to finish within four lengths of Rockabubble in the group one 1600m Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha last start and although a couple of these are smart, she will find the drop in class to her advantage. She will also appreciate the step up to 2100m. Madame Shinko (No 1) is in great form, although she will not find the 57kg an easy task and Resurrection (No 9) deserves respect despite stepping way up in class.