If horse racing were a science, we wouldn't see results like this.
Saturday's $300,000 Herbie Dyke Stakes proved a few naked truths, not all of which could stand too much scrutiny.
One certainty is that even allowing for the around $10 price, there was no massive confidence Valley Girl could topple the likes of Kawi and Stolen Dance. And neither should she have been able to.
That's public confidence - the stable opinion has always been that Valley Girl has a massive future. But to win a group one at this level at just the sixth raceday start is unthinkable.
The Donna Logan and Chris Gibbs stable will take that, thanks very much, even if under circumstances only thoroughbred racing can manufacture, it seemed near impossible.