KEY POINTS:
Trainer Bruce Wallace has a made desperate plea for all New Zealand horses to be vaccinated against equine influenza.
Wallace says the move is drastic, but it is the only realistic chance New Zealand has of avoiding the catastrophic effects the virus has had in Australia.
New Zealand is the world's only major racing country to remain free of EI.
But there are mounting fears that that may not be able to be sustained with the virus rampant so close to our borders.
Wallace has his best galloper Grand Dancer stuck at Randwick after catching the virus, which has sunk his chances of attacking the A$1 million Caulfield Guineas and A$3 million Cox Plate.
Grand Dancer was officially declared to have the virus on Tuesday after his temperature reached a certain threshold, but Wallace says he has known for 10 days the horse has had the virus.
"That makes a nonsense of things.
"They're recognising the virus by a temperature, but Grand Dancer has had the nasal discharge and a cough for 10 days," he said.
"The official website that's been set up says there are 4800 horses affected in Australia and last week it was something like 3000.
"The vet that's treating my horse tells me the website is three days behind in its figures.
"If that's the case and horses are contracting the virus for up to 10 days before being officially recognised, then how many actually have it right now?
"Basically, the thing's out of control."
Australia's first reaction to the viral outbreak was containment, which has proven to be ineffective.
Australian state borders were closed to horses and no horses of any breed were allowed off the property on which they were housed.
Those measures have kept the virus out of Victoria, which has just launched its famous spring racing carnival, a critical financial component for all sectors of the racing industry and for the state of Victoria.
But they have been only marginally successful in containing the viral spread in New South Wales, which has been devastated.
Sections of the racing industry this week approached the Australian Government for a financial package to vaccinate all horses, but that has been turned down. The government cited the expected cost of A$70 million to A$100 million as too great.
Bruce Wallace says breaking that figure down is essential to its acceptance.
"If we vaccinate all horses here it will be between $150 and $200 a horse - that's two or three days' training fees.
"Is that too much to protect our industry?" he asked.
Wallace believes it is not a case of whether New Zealand will get the virus, but when.
"You can put all the biosecurity measures in place you like, but what's to stop me going to Randwick, having coffee, patting Grand Dancer then flying home and patting one of my horses here.
"Are they going to put a regulation in place to ensure I wash my hands.
"You can't regulate against those things."
Last Friday Melbourne-based former New Zealand jumps jockey Brett Scott flew into Auckland to ride at Ellerslie's big Great Northern meeting.
He had non-essential gear confiscated and the remainder was fully immersed in anti-viral fluids.
But Wallace, and many others, fear those protocols will be breached somehow - and that it will take only one breach.
"In Australia there are people exposed to 5000 horses with the virus that we know of. Can you really hope to contain that level of protection?
"If we're serious about saving our industry we need to be spending some money now."
Wallace said he is concerned what the future holds for Grand Dancer in his premier 3-year-old season.
"We don't know when we will get him home - the quarantine regulations can't be worked out properly until this has been contained," he said.
"We may not see Grand Dancer home until February, if then.
"There is a chance we may leave him there and race in the autumn if this thing is straightened out."
* The New South Wales TAB's turnover has plummeted A$70 million since the EI outbreak and the Victorian TAB is down A$41 million.
* Early this week Tip Of The Iceberg became the first Australian horse to die from the effects of the virus.
Tip Of The Iceberg developed colitis with the virus and had to be put down.
The gelding's Tamworth trainer Lew Hyson called for all horses to be vaccinated.
"I have never seen such a healthy horse deteriorate so quickly," he told the Herald Sun newspaper.
There appears to be no clear figures on the lasting effects of the virus, but Northern Hemisphere anecdotal evidence is that the largest percentage of horses fully recover, but a lesser percentage fail to fully regain their best previous form.
The Australian Government has offered a A$$110 million package for those dependent on the industry.
