Racing: Under-rated mare looks close to winning form

Having her first start since December is Sophalopha (No 2, R4), an under-rated mare who is at her best when she is a shade on the fresh side as she is at Ellerslie today. The handy mare looks well placed to make it a winning performance. A recent barrier trial win on her home track suggested she was at the right level of fitness to be competitive. Veil (No 3) is fitter for two starts this preparation and the horse to watch if the track gets too heavy is She's So Cavalier (No 13). She has been waiting for the right conditions and the three runs she has put together during that time will have her at the right pitch today.

It's often difficult to get value in jumping races and Deceit (No 2,R5) won't pay off your mortgage. But she should win. It took Gold Jet to top her off in last week's Waikato Steeplechase and trainer Tony Cole is happy the mare has gone the right way since that run. This preparation she has already had three steeplechases and a hurdle race and the main danger Bart (No 1) has not raced since last October. As good as Bart is, it's difficult to see how he can turn that disadvantage around.

Tom O'Forbes (No 2, R2) showed plenty of potential in two starts in February and comes into this race fresh. He should produce a top effort in that state, the only concern being if the track became very testing. Ala Moana (No 1) will be dangerous and Orpen Song (No 10) has form on wet tracks.

Aircraft (No 4, R1) has had only two hurdle starts and won one of them. He is a young jumper of promise and with a doubt over the fitness of some of these runners he is well placed with two flat start behind him this preparation.

Deacon Brodie (No 1, R3) has not started in a steeplechase, but being trained by the Luptons at Waverley he will have been well schooled over the bigger fences. He was a useful hurdler last winter and should be even better at the 'chasing. Royal Keel (No 3) made a great job of his steeplechasing debut when finishing second at Paeroa. Co-trainer Sheryl McGlade says Royal Keel has improved for that run and should be at peak to give Deacon Brodie a real challenge.

The Foal Stakes looks a formality - Missy Elliott (No 3, R6) if Captain Kurt (No 1) does not run because of the track conditions. Missy Elliot is a girl for all occasions - she's tough and doesn't seem to mind what track conditions she's presented with. Captain Kurt could be something special, but rain should keep him at home. Ballymore Lass (No4) had to have four months off with strained back muscles after a severe buffeting in her last race at Riccarton in November. Co-trainer Paul Moroney says the filly is well forward to resume and appeared to handle a rain-affected track in training at Matamata on Tuesday.

Tuscaloosa (No 2, R7) should appreciate both the wetter track and the increase in distance to 1400m. He was narrowly beaten when resuming over 1200m at Dargaville and although he has had a few chances, he is worth one more try. Danmega (No 6) has had only one career start for a third in Hong Kong. He recently easily won a barrier trial on his home track at Cambridge, the question mark here being the track conditions, with a lesser concern about the outside barrier.

The extent of the rain will decide the sprint, Race 8. If the footing comes up reasonable this morning Cog Hill (No 2) will take some stopping. His fresh-up second to Star Of Rio at Te Rapa was a top effort and should have him very ready for this. Worth noting is that he has placed performances on soft and easy tracks, but has yet to win on anything but firm. Floydeboy (No 5) reared in the gates as the start was made when resuming at Te Rapa and his effort can be forgotten. The more rain the better for him. Don't be surprised if stayer All's Well (No 4) runs a race at the 1400m. He has had a month away from racing and he freshens well. His record on rain affected tracks is remarkable.

The last three Ellerslie races each look like traps for punters.

In Race 10 invest a little on Expectalite (No 8) and designate him as a horse to follow in the next couple of months.

After rain overnight and during the morning the Taranaki track was 5.1 and heavy yesterday afternoon.

That is going to undermine a good deal of the form for the $50,000 Independent Cable Interprovincial this afternoon.

One it will suit is Daraldo (No 4, R9). He absolutely handles the worst of winter footing (11 starts for 3 wins and 6 placings on heavy tracks) and could upset this field at the $14 he was showing last night on the TAB Final Field chart.

He has no form fresh from a spell, but Ralph Manning is too smart to have him short for a $50,000 race and Daraldo managed to win a barrier trial at Te Aroha 11 days ago.

Missing from that race will be the Waikato provincial representative Ubitquitous who has been scratched.

The Doomben Cup in Brisbane is always a very difficult race to nab. Former New Zealander Pacific Dancer has been waiting for a firm track. He would be far better off if this were a handicap rather than run at weight-for-age, but he is good enough to figure.

Watch that the track stays good - he races like a hobbled duck in the wet.