These things don't always work out as you'd like, but the Wellington Cup almost looks like a two-horse race, Maygrove (No14, R9) and Graphic (No6). You hate saying this, but the field has no great depth to it and that is no criticism of the Wellington Racing Club. The $200,000 is good, but we just don't have the top class stayers we used to and Australia is even worse off.
What would a Kiwi or a Castletown do to this field? It doesn't bear thinking about.
That said, Maygrove is a very progressive horse. He gets to the line very strongly and has proved he much prefers these left-handed tracks.
Co-trainer Andrew Forsman said Maygrove was probably a fraction underdone when beaten by a nose at Manawatu last start and is a fitter horse now. On 52kg he will run the 2400m right out and the question of a decent pace - which he needs - probably won't be an issue.
The 2300m could be the key for Savarhys (No3, R1) in the opener at Trentham. He has been getting home strongly in shorter races and he looks reasonably suited to this one.
Weissmuller (No3, R2) is highly talented. He has also won two of his three fresh-up career runs. His form going into this race is not flash, but a peak run would see him go close here. He's probably not a plonk horse, but he's worth including in multiples. Vincent Street (No7) could not get to Moozoon last week, but there are no Moozoons in this field.
Letmego (No3, R3) found the 1600m a bit far in the Eight Carat Classic at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. The 1200m here will suit and even more important, this race is a big step back in class from the Eight Carat. Massale (No4) deserves a win and Steel Rose (No6) is capable of a fresh run.
Race 4 is tricky, as a lot of special conditions races are, but there is a hint Savaria (No14) might be pretty useful. There was plenty to like about her Hastings maiden win recorded in fast time. Plenty of chances and Seize The Moment (No3) is one of them.
The way Platinum Witness (No1, R5) won the 1000 Guineas she's going to take beating at level weights in the Desert Gold Stakes, even though she hasn't run for a couple of months. She is a good finisher and will beat more than beats her. Attention Seeker (No2) wilted after making the pace in the 2000m Royal Stakes at Ellerslie last start and will probably appreciate the 1600m trip. The value bet in Race 6 is On The Hill (No4). She has been ridden by an inexperienced apprentice in recent starts and last time covered plenty of extra ground when a close fourth to Charlestown at Awapuni.
Leith Innes has the ride this time and look for On The Hill to be getting home strongly. Charlestown (No3) looks the horse to beat again.
Race 7, the Thorndon Mile, is complicated. Ponderosa Miss (No15) deserves plenty of attention with just 53kg on her back. That was a huge third in the Zabeel Classic on Boxing Day when things went wrong on the home bend. Her victor that day Soriano (No4) drops 1kg from Ellerslie and Ponderosa Miss comes down 3.5kg. And then you have Pure Champion (No1), who needs the right run with the pace on, but is very good when he gets it.
• There have been few more impressive debut wins than The Justice League (No15, R5) and he deserves to be favourite for the Karaka Million at Ellerslie tomorrow night. He is super talented and although this is perhaps the best Karaka Million field we've seen, he is going to take a huge amount of beating.
The No10 barrier draw for Australian runner Hardline is far from ideal, but he is similarly talented and if he ends up with a decent passage from that gate, he will also take beating.
The fillies Strata Lady (No12) and Bella Court (No10) have talent to burn.
Deane Martin (No1, R2) has had no luck lately, particularly last start when he couldn't clear an 800m pocket then he galloped over Michael McNab on the track early in the home run in the City Of Auckland Cup.
He has clear topweight by 3kg, but has earned it. Don't discount him.
Rock Diva (No6) is worth another chance.
Volkstok'n'barrell (No1, R3) is simply too good ... end of story.
Rockfast (No2) was resuming when he chased him home last start and will be improved.
It took a touch of bad luck to beat Arrow In The Sand (No2, R6) last start, but look to her to correct that in the last tomorrow night. She is smart.
