Racing: Two winners needed for guineas money

By MIKE DILLON

You have to back two winners to land the money in today's $200,000 Coupland's Bakeries Guineas at Riccarton - the weather forecasters and a horse.

If the forecasters are 100 per cent right - and that's an even money bet on exposed form - Leica Guy and I Rock My World will love the rain that will envelope Christchurch and if it doesn't eventuate, the class of Sedecrem and San Luis can prevail.

Let's give the weather team the benefit of doubt and say Leica Guv will revel the easy or soft track conditions to prove he may be one of the most underrated 3-year-olds in years.

He has yet to attract the excitement his three wins from five starts deserves, perhaps because of the workmanlike way he goes about his business.

There was certainly nothing flashy about his Guineas win at Ellerslie last start, but it might be a mistake to think the rain that dampened the surface that day was entirely responsible for the win.

Leica Guv has a cluncky galloping action, which probably needs only a marginal easing of the footing to be comfortable.

Saturday's 1000 Guineas at Riccarton turned out to be not the two-horse or three-horse war it was billed to be and this group one classic could be the same.

San Luis and Sedecrem are the class acts. Sedecrem has proved he is hopeless on anything other than firm footing and San Luis will not be suited by rain.

Don't be put off by San Luis' -266 formline. He was ridden unsuitably in front when a weakening sixth in Vinaka's Hawkes Bay Guineas and seemed to get too far off the speed when running on behind the same horse at Te Rapa last start.

In the right conditions this is the perfect race for San Luis who, if this was a race decided on looks, would be handed the money one hour before start time.

While the conditions certainly suited, I Rock My World did not win the Guineas at Trentham solely because of the heavy track. He is a smart type on the way through and if he gets the right conditions he can test his more lauded companions.

Prominent owner Gerard Peterson did not have a lot of luck in running with Maythehorsebewithu in the Melbourne Cup and I Rock My World offers some level of compensation.

Modena Bay is going to win a big race one day. She probably won't want to give this field the start she stood the leaders in the Guineas Trial at Ellerslie and in the Guineas itself, but the finishing burst she turned on in both races was impressive.

And worth remembering is they simply were not able to make ground easily from the back on Guineas day at Ellerslie.

Modena Bay is the trifecta value horse, as it would not be the first time a filly had upset the colts and geldings in this race.

If firm: San Luis 1, Sedecrem 2, Modena Bay 3.

In the wet: Leica Guv 1, I Rock My World 2, Modena Bay.

Watch the skies.