If you talk to Maurice McKendry you might not want to back Mr Bojangles at Alexandra Park tonight.
After talking to rival trainer Brian Hughes you will.
The two men train the big names in tonight's $20,000 Pak'N Save Pukekohe Pace - McKendry with Mr Bojangles and Hughes is the co-trainer of Alta Serena.
The pair have been two of the most in-form northern pacers over the summer and are both using tonight's race as a lead-up to the second Auckland Cup of the season on March 10.
And in that last sentence are two words that should always terrify punters: lead-up.
Whenever horses are returning from a short break and being aimed at a major race in a few weeks their trainers want them to have as easy a race as possible.
They are there to win, but they want to win without a hard run which may flatten them for the remainder of their campaigns.
In the case of Alta Serena that campaign not only includes the Auckland Cup but the Interdominions, which culminate in a A$1.5 million ($1.6 million) final on April 2.
So you can understand why Hughes doesn't want her having a gutbuster in a $20,000 race tonight.
Alta Serena faces a 50m handicap, which may not have been a problem if Mr Bojangles wasn't in the field.
"She might be able to beat the rest of them but I don't think she can give Mr Bojangles a 30m start and a beating," admitted Hughes.
"I am very happy with her after the way she trialled last week and she is there to win.
"But she is not there to have a gutbuster and I don't really want to see her attacking in the middle stages.
"I'll be happy as long as she is running on well at the line."
Small fields with horses off a range of handicaps tend to turn into a game of cat and mouse and punters have to be careful they are the ones who don't end up in the mouse trap.
Under normal circumstances Alta Serena would win your average intermediate grade race even from a 50m handicap. In fact she did just that at Cambridge in October.
But she wasn't up against a Mr Bojangles on that occasion.
He has been the biggest improver in northern pacing in the last three months, starting the summer as a promising two-win pacer and now being rated among our best four-year-olds.
His place near the head of that list was confirmed by two awesome staying wins at Cambridge last month, performances he would only have to replicate tonight to give Alta Serena little chance of winning.
Of course his ultra-conservative trainer-driver McKendry is loath to start tipping him as a winner.
"He is well in himself but he won't be at his peak," explains McKendry.
"He has had an easy time after his latest win at Cambridge and hasn't been to the workouts since.
"But he did work well here last week (2400m in 3:12, last 800m in 59 seconds) and he does go fresh."
That last statement almost sounded like confidence from McKendry and should be all the indication punters need to make him the favourite tonight.
The tricky nature of the race means the pair may not have it to themselves, with Lord Vader also a genuine chance.
The rugged stayer was an impressive all-the-way winner of the Summer Cup two starts ago and tried hard in the Auckland Cup on December 31.
He comes in well under tonight's handicapping conditions but does have the slight disadvantage of missing regular driver David Butcher who will be at Addington to drive Okete Star in the rich fillies' Sales Series race.
With a safe beginning he could work forward and in a race lacking natural pacemakers he can win, but he will also be better for the outing.
The value in the race - a rare thing in a seven-horse pacing race - might be Scapa.
He was beaten by Alta Serena at the workouts last week but is a clean-winded pacer who is good from a standing start and driver Frank Cooney may be more aggressive than some of his rivals tonight.
That is because he doesn't have to worry about the Auckland Cup in two weeks.
If the race becomes one of those dreadful sit-sprint affairs, as so many under these conditions do, then his speed will be a major plus.
Racing: Tuning in to Mr Bojangles
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