Racing: Trifecta could be the way to go in Kelt Stakes

With Xcellent at unbackable odds, the Kelt trifecta might be the way to get a punting edge this afternoon, but you need a bank to cover it.

The best bet is Cog Hill (No6, R9) at Hastings.

The $3 on offer yesterday with the TAB's Final Field book looked good.

Cog Hill's first start back from a break at Ellerslie last start was huge. In a fast-run race where the pacemaking winner never left the rail, Cog Hill was five and six wide around the home bend and still kept coming in the closing stages. He has recorded exceptional times for this 1400m distance. As a saver, quinella him up with Clean Sweep (No10) and Clifton Prince (No5), the obvious two dangers.

Pin Up Boy (No2, R1) is a pretty good way to start the Hastings card. The odds won't be smart, but neither should they be after his fighting second to Amazing One on this track two weeks ago. Again the 3kg Kelly Myers takes off his back will be hugely valuable.

Blue Tsunami (No7, R2) is probably not an everyday horse, but she looked to be hitting the line nicely in the stronger field that Amazing One beat last time. It's fair to assume she's fitter and if she's around the $8 mark, she could be value each way.

Coup Timaru (No1, R3) is no good thing, but faces a mixed type of field and could go close. He's sure to be improved for his most recent Awapuni effort and the odds should be okay. But be careful in this race, it's tough.

With the possible exception of Miss Potential, Snazzy (No9, R4) turned in the most dazzling winning performance on the middle day at Hastings. If he can reproduce the finishing dash of that day, he wins this.

The only niggling doubt is that he gave the impression that day that he might be better suited jumping from the 1600m then to 2000m, but stays at the same trip here. Sing In The Sun (No1) caught the eye with a stunning finish under 59kg for a close fourth over an unsuitable 1200m at Ellerslie. He drops a kilo and jumps up the 400m he needs. Watch him, he's close to a win.

Don't miss the Hawkes Bay Guineas, it'll be a cracker. Darci Brahma (No3, R5) deserves a slight edge in favouritism, coming off a group one Australian juvenile victory.

But Dr Green (No4) will make sure he doesn't get it easy and if it goes wrong for both colts, Captain Kurt (No1) will be there to catch the ball. There is no guarantee they'll do it, but if they run hard, Darci Brahma's finishing dash might just prove the telling factor. Wonderful contest between several talented 3-year-olds.

The Kelt, well, you can only approach it on the basis that if the breaks are even, Xcellent (No11, R7) wins. Every runner needs luck in a group one race, back runners particularly, but it's difficult to come up with a scenario the result of which would see Xcellent beaten.

His Mudgway victory last start was simply too stunning. Last year's Kelt winner Balmuse (No1) looks similarly a good thing to form part of the trifecta. Behind them Magnetism (No11), St Reims (No8) and Mandela (No12) make the most appeal, but there is plenty of room for one of the others to turn in a season's best.

Victor Victorious (No3, R8) will start a deserved favourite after his exceptional last-start second. Include him in a trifecta with Capsise (No10), who won an Ellerslie maiden last start in the manner of a horse going further.

Intermittent (No9, R10) went a real beaut to be third to Captain Kurt and back to special maiden class he looks to have the edge on most of this field.

Devoted (No5, R7) is one of the bets at Matamata. He has not raced since February, but is a class act and Jim Gibbs will have him as ready as he needs to be to be competitive on his home track today.

Laura Cheshire takes 2kg off his back dropping him down to a comfortable 53kg. Chad Ormsby's 3kg claim will make a big difference to the visitor Baltaine (No2). The 53.5kg he goes around with will feel better than the 57.5kg and 58kg he's carried lately.

Aimees Idol (No2, R5) led and was caught on the inside where you couldn't win at Paeroa last start. There are no Leigh Valleys in this field and she gets a chance.

The $40,000 Matamata Cup is a difficult race. Davina Waddell believes Alls Well (No1, R6) is a shade short of fitness for 1600m, but he races well when fresh, Kerry O'Reilly (No12) is racing at a distance short of his best, but is hugely talented and Insan Itee (No2) is very talented, but 57kg is a lot of weight for a mare. For and against everywhere.

If the track gets back to 2.8 or better, Kerry OReilly might be the sneaky bet because you just know you're going to get your money back not too far down the line. He is going to be one of the summer stars.

El Perez (No8, R8) - a beaut for Asian punters - was having his first middle distance start last time, always a difficult assignment, and then got blocked for room. With neither of those issues to worry about this time he should go close to getting punters square.