Racing: Tricky Pick6 at Trentham today

Fears Nothing has had only two starts back since a long break and should be close to fitness. Photo / Greg Bowker

Fromelles deserves to be favourite in Leg 4 after her Rotorua Cup victory.

The answer to whether there is an anchor in Trentham's $300,000 Pick6 today is a clear "no".

To give an example of how difficult this one could be to land all six winners is that only seven face the starter in the first leg and if you can narrow it down to leaving just two of them out you're doing well.

LEG 1
So, which two does this column recommend leaving out - a road to condemnation that needs to be taken - are Elusive Tracy and Bella Carolina. You can make a case for the following: Fears Nothing (No2) separated Veyron and Sir Slick in last year's Easter at Ellerslie. Has had only two starts back since long break through unsoundness and should be close to fitness. Handles all ground. Sacha (No3) classy at best and three runs this prep has her close, Lisa Latta is on fire. Oak Park (No4) is a classy mare from Murray Baker's barn, but she is also a tiny mare and the 56kg might be a problem in very testing conditions.

I Am Sam (No1) only once outside the first three in 12 heavy track starts and that was when fourth in the Opunake Cup after lugging badly in the home straight. The 59kg will not be easy in this footing, but he's tough. Blackmandu (No7) loves the mud and has gone well when fresh. Claims 4kg and will carry 10kg less than I Am Sam. If you can scrub another one of those out, good luck.

LEG 2
When these tracks get like they are in autumn and winter, relative weights become critical. Which is why Diamond Tango's clear 59kg topweight is awkward. Also, he is coming off a 7-day back-up and a gut-busting run when he missed by a nose. He can win, but we recommend you don't anchor him. Micken (No2) is the one to beat. He's beautifully bred, finished second in the Wellington Guineas on this track and comes from a stable that can get them to win fresh from a break. He has also shown he can manage a wet track. Prepared (No10) got home strongly from well back at Awapuni last week over 1200m and looks nicely placed as an upset chance here, stepping up to 1400m. Lisa Latta's pair of Gold Wedding (No6) and Tacticall (No8) offer insurance for those looking to go wide in this leg.

LEG 3
Impossible to narrow down. To get it down to three (and that may not be enough) it's probably Negotiate (No6), who has had one start in the heavy stuff and won clearly, Shamtaari (No7), who came from a long way back for a close sixth on a track too good for her (this won't be) and Barbara Ann (No12), who produced an improver's fourth last time. She has won at her only start on a wet track and is also a Trentham winner. Then, you'd probably be crazy to leave out Aunt Daisy (No9), who is good in the wet and who shows plenty of heart when things get tough and Golden Miss (No10), in the early stages of a new campaign and ready to start showing form. It's crazy, but there are other chances in Anagram (No5), Baltis (No3) and Diana (No4).

LEG 4
A chance to go a bit more narrow here. Fromelles (No5) deserves to be favourite after her clear-cut Rotorua Cup victory last start. She is not badly placed on 54.5kg. Veterans in Aintree (No7) and Belfast Lad (No6) need to be on your ticket. Take no notice of Belfast Lad being beaten last week - the 1600m distance was far too short and things did not go his way. He is much better placed here. Aintree needed only one more stride to take victory at New Plymouth last start and will appreciate the bigger track this time. Spiro (No1) is interesting. He is claiming only 1kg off his seemingly impossible 61kg and 60kg in this footing is not going to be easy. In 40 starts he has not competed on a heavy track. We are not saying definitely leave him out, but we will be. Intransigent (No3) and Bragato (No2) for those who want a further spread.

LEG 5
You would like to think it gets easier, but it doesn't. If this track comes down to a real slow - and that's likely - Foremost (No4) and Our Destiny (No2) are going to be suited. Both can slug with the best of them. Don't be put off by the fact Foremost jumped last winter, he retains his ability on the flat and Mark Oulaghan is as good as any at mixing up the mode of racing. Ranganui (No3) has been racing against some pretty good fields and drops back in class here. Danish Ruler (No5) and All In Clover (No11) are considerations. All In Clover is an improving mare who has a good record in the wet.

LEG 6
Bella Vi (No8) and Dinksta (No7) have yet to race on a track like this, so there is a bit of guesswork there, but they have as much ability as any in this race. They have to be on your ticket in the last leg of a big Pick6. Probably so do Te Karaka (No2) and Go Thunder (No1). Te Karaka has had problems to the extent he has had only three career starts, but he has ability. So does Go Thunder, particularly when it's wet. The blowout horse is Our Moon Shadow (No14). She is a 6-year-old and has yet to run a place in a race, but she's had only four of them and a couple have been cracking efforts. She hasn't run in the wet yet, but is bred to and might just be very good in it.