Racing: Transtasman juveniles put to the test

The best judge of Australasian 2-year-old form is leading Sydney bookmaker Colin Tidy.

Tidy has an interesting day today.

He has sent his own juvenile Dower to New Zealand to run in the $500,000 New Zealand Bloodstock Classique at Te Rapa tomorrow and soon after that is run he will be on his stand in the Rosehill ring fielding bets on the New Zealand colt Dr Green making his Australian debut in the A$200,000 Silver Slipper Stakes.

Tidy and his chief odds setter Mark Morrissey have turned the juvenile form analysis preceding the A$3 million Golden Slipper into a virtual art form.

It's their job of course and if they get the form wrong in Sydney's biggest race of the year, financial disaster is not far away.

Tidy is already taking big bets on the Slipper, but said yesterday he is about two to three weeks from having the form come into proper focus. When each of the leading lights has its next race he will be much better armed to do the cross-analysis.

What he does know down to the last stride is the talent of his own Pins filly Dower, trained in Sydney by Graeme Rogerson.

"My theory, and I might be completely wrong, is that New Zealand 2-year-olds mature a fair bit slower than Australia's.

"That's the reason we've sent Dower to New Zealand for this race."

Many good judges believe that the warmer the climate the more precocious 2-year-olds become as they mature.

"If I was doing it right, I'd have my youngsters develop in Queensland and they'd be that much further ahead when they came into work," said Tidy.

He rates Dower below Golden Slipper class.

"I'd say she's three to four lengths - probably four - behind the horses I've got at the top of the Slipper market at the moment.

"If she hadn't gone to New Zealand her option would be to run in the Silver Slipper tomorrow and she's not up to that class."

New Zealand has never produced a Slipper winner, but that's not to say our horses will not one day lift the holy grail of juvenile racing.

Maizcay finished fourth from an extremely wide barrier, McGinty cracked a cannon bone beating the eventual Slipper winner Marscay in the final lead-up and luck has counted against a couple of others.

Cambridge trainer Brian Jenkins is trying to put that right with Dr Green.

Tidy is reserving his Slipper opinion on the Kiwi colt until after tomorrow's race. So is Morrissey, but Morrissey said he has been surprised about how much Australian money there was for Dr Green yesterday.

"When you get a New Zealand horse in a race like this the vast percentage of support for it comes from New Zealand.

"Australian punters are really warming to this bloke and we've taken a lot of money for him from locals. Jet Spur and Dr Green are the two the punters have wanted."

Dr Green has extreme speed early and he will need it, drawing the outside barrier of the six runners tomorrow. If he is to cross them and take up the running he will need to be flying when he hits the ground.

Tidy says the two hurdles for Dr Green look to be Flying Pegasus and Pasikatera.

"Pasikatera has extreme speed and will keep him [Dr Green] busy early."

Morrissey expects first-start Queenslander Jet Spur to similarly show blistering speed and to probably take on whoever leads. Jet Spur has not raced and won his only barrier trial at the Gold Coast track by seven lengths.

The office has Flying Pegasus favourite at $3, ahead of Pasikatera on $3.25. Domesday is at $5 and Dr Green $5.50.

Morrissey said weight of money has made Flying Pegasus favourite, but his office is keen to "take on" the youngster, in other words they see him as vulnerable.

Extreme speed might win today's race, but it is almost a negative for the Golden Slipper. Speed alone cannot win a Slipper. It is so much of a blowtorch pressure race, where the first 600m is never slower than 34 seconds, that horses finishing strongly invariably get over the top of those in front.

From a Slipper perspective, a great result for Dr Green would be if he is able to curb his remarkable brilliance and settle behind the pace.

This is a qualifying race for the Golden Slipper, with the winner exempt from the ballot in the big race.

Tidy has the Gerald Ryan-trained Snitzel as $4.50 Golden Slipper favourite just ahead of Mnemosyne (John Hawkes) at $5.

"I've rated these two as standout right through. The reason I've kept Snitzel a touch shorter than Mnemosyne is that his owner is just as likely to have a couple of hundred grand on him, so I've had to be careful."

Tidy is disregarding the Magic Millions defeat of Snitzel, who started hot favourite.

"There was a massive bias that day towards horses drawn the No 1 and No 2 barriers. Seven of the eight races were won by those horses and anything that covered ground wasn't seen. Snitzel drew barrier No 11."

Mnemosyne beat little in the way of class, but Tidy was impressed.

"[Darren] Beadman dropped him out to last and was happy to be there to the home turn still trailing them. He gave him one kick and he went by them like they weren't there and won by a wide margin. It was a weak field, but he destroyed them."