The third Tiley winning hope is Man Down (No3, R5) who made an impression when he left maidens at his second career start at Te Aroha last time. He handles bad ground extremely well and conditions should be perfect for him. Sakhee's Soldier (No1) and Ponderosa Miss (No7) will provide plenty of opposition. Ponderosa Miss looked a bit stiff at Te Rapa last time.
If this race was run at level weights Hot Mustard (No1, R3) would be hot favourite and would probably win, but carrying his full 59.5kg provides him with a stiff task. Inis Rose (No6) looks better placed with 56kg. Her latest form has been first class and her last-start fourth at Manawatu was a top effort. As a five-time winner Stagehand (No2) does well to be pitched against one and two-win types. He should be greatly improved for his fresh-up run at Ellerslie last week and a good effort would not surprise. It will be a big effort if Hot Mustard can win.
Pump Up The Volume (No2, R4) is probably the each-way bet of the day after his gallant close second to Indikator in the Rotorua Cup, but at the weights Bragato (No4) is going to take beating. He gets 3kg off Pump Up The Volume and 4kg from Postmans Daughter. He is twice a winner from four Ellerslie appearances and that puts him right in this.
Back Magna Carta (No2, R6) today and keep following him. The two starts he has had since a spell should have him fit enough to be right in this finish. He is a five-time Ellerslie winner and will battle through the very testing conditions today. Chill Bill (No7) should also be improved and Financialterrorist (No11) is better than last week's run suggests.
Sarsarun (No4, R7) has a remarkable record to try to improve on. From five career fresh-up runs she has won three times and comes in fresh from a break today. She showed she was ready for this with her recent Ellerslie barrier trial win and she gets a massive 4kg apprentice allowance. That said, this is a very useful field with loads of chances. Jubilate (No2) is favourite and deservedly so. His Ellerslie record is wonderful and he looks the horse to beat. Flower Bomb (No8) is better than her latest runs suggest and she will appreciate dropping back to handicap class after running at weight-for-age behind I Do at Rotorua. Don't drop Magic Belle (No9) for her Trentham failure last week - there will be plenty of form reversals coming from that meeting run under shocking conditions. The Filly (No5) will win one soon.
Taking the view that the 59kg Biggin Hill (No1, R8) will be lumbered beneath might prove too much in the testing conditions, the lighter weighted horses make appeal. Fluoro Lite (No9) will be fitter for her first-up Te Awamutu run and can start to show something quickly. She is twice a winner at Ellerslie and claims a 4kg allowance, putting her a massive 9kg below Biggin Hill in the weights. Clos de Tart (No10) loves heavy ground and coming off a stylish Te Aroha win in the mud she appeals.
Yesterday it appeared Cillian Will (No1, R9) would be withdrawn and saved for Monday, in which case Edward The Eighth (No12) appeals as an upset chance. That was a very good third here last week in the worst part of the track and she gets a 1kg allowance here. Quickasucan (No16) doesn't win out of turn these days, but he is still a very talented galloper. He is a must for all types of multiple bets.
Saywhen (No9) might be good - this race will tell - and Stella (No7) is another value runner.
Past Wanganui winner Thorn Prince will appreciate the step up to a middle distance when he makes a return to the River City today. The Fraser Auret-trained chestnut now appears a more robust individual and ready for his staying qualities to come to the fore in the Barber Groundspray Foxton Cup (2040m).
Thorn Prince beat the well-performed mare Zennista in his resuming autumn run at Trentham and then finished runner-up to Neo on a return to the capital.
At his latest appearance over 1600 metres, he finished midfield behind his stablemate Julinsky Prince in the Listed Rangitikei Gold Cup and raced in the manner of a horse requiring a longer trip. "He's been pretty solid all the way through this time," Auret said. "Getting up to 2000 metres is going to suit him."
Runaway Ellerslie winner Addictive Habit is a potential winter star and is on a path toward next month's Kiwifruit Cup at Tauranga.
The Colombia gelding was twice placed at Group level behind Habibi last season before he met with injury when out of the money in the star filly's Group 1 New Zealand Derby.
"He got hurt and that was probably a blessing in disguise, although you never want anything to go wrong with a tendon, and it's given him the time to mature," trainer Lee Somervell said.
Additional reporting NZ Racing Desk
