Racing: Track brings out the best in Banchee

Banchee is the horse to beat. Photo / Herald on Sunday

If you need assurance Banchee is the horse to beat in today's $85,000 Supadeal Furniture Avondale Guineas look at her course stats.

Four wins, three placings from seven starts at Ellerslie and you can make a case that at least one of the placings - in last year's $1 million Karaka Million - was luckless.

The class filly simply loves the joint. All she needs to prove is she can run 2100m in her first start beyond 1600m and the way she finishes off her races you'd be backing her to do exactly that.

There are only 15 in this race, not like the 18 who will run in the Derby, which will make Banchee's back-running style less difficult.

The trifecta will not be easy because the barrier draws of horses like He's Remarkable, O'Reilly's Prize, Yourein and Raffles Knight make their job considerably more difficult. Yet it's difficult to make a case to leave them out of multiple bets. Then you have to have Hidden Asset, who will jump from the No 1 barrier. The best value runner is Historian, who is a real sleeper.

There will be plenty of hard luck stories after this race.

Good bets top and tail the meeting. Dasoudi (No2, R1) and Magic Potion (No10, R8) stand out. Dasoudi has always been underrated and her second last start to Booming in the group one Thorndon Mile showed what she is capable of. It's a smart field though and Alegrio (No4) and Gorse (No5) are right in the race.

Magic Potion went huge when fourth on this course last start. She didn't get the best of runs and was flying home late behind Nippin. Stepping up to 2100m for the first time is never easy, particularly for a 3-year-old filly who has raced just three times, but she looks the goods.

Race 2 is difficult, but Nancho Bella (No5), who promised much and finally came to it last start, and Belle Vitesse (No7) are strong chances that shouldn't be left out of multiples. Belle Vitesse was off the track without cover in that Nippin race on this course last start and that eighth placing can be forgotten. Similarly the effort of Roddick (No8, R3) when sixth at Te Rapa can be dismissed. He didn't get a lot of racing room and was not far away. He should get the run of the race from a nice barrier this time. Essential (No6) will find this maiden class easier than chasing Jimmy Choux around in the Waikato Guineas and Postage (No1) has to be some hope.

Aspinal (No7, R4) could be some each-way value. She comes in fresh here and is the type to sprint well in that state. Her formline on paper looks ordinary, but she raced in some smart fields and didn't always enjoy luck. Street Party (No8) has a nice draw and the class to take advantage of it and with the claim One Swanstonstreet (No6) has a chance. So does Mae Jinx (No1).

Leica Scotch (No2, R6) should just win. If he doesn't then, yes, you probably would like one. From a wide gate he covered the world last start and still finished second, which should see him get the money here. Three-year-old filly Keenly (No10) has chased Jimmy Choux around in her last two races and deserves respect here.

Showcause (No6, R7) will be tough to bowl. Despite the fact he has already won the New Zealand Cup and City Of Auckland Cups this preparation, he looks to have kept on improving. Completely ignore his last-start Wellington Cup failure when the wet track brought him undone. He's nicely weighted at 54.5kg and will go close over the 2400m. Can't Keeper Down (No9), He's Under The Gun (No13) and Loose Change (No7) all appeal for multiples.

At New Plymouth, Pinsoir (No2, R7) deserves some luck. The small field plays right into his hands.