KEY POINTS:
The connections of many of Kerry O'Reilly's rivals in tomorrow's $120,000 Waikato Times Gold Cup believe he'll have a tough task lumping his 58kg topweight.
It's up to the old bloke to prove them wrong.
There is no question the 58kg will prove difficult, but there are stats
to say he might just do it on his favourite racetrack.
The first is the way he shouldered the same weight when beaten only a long neck by Spin Around in the Counties Cup at Ellerslie.
He didn't manage the rain-affected track that well that day and was held up just long enough to delay rider Cameron Lammas from making his run in the home straight.
Spin Around's subsequent Avondale Cup victory, where he buried the opposition, makes that form look pretty good.
Kerry O'Reilly has never had an aversion to Ellerslie, but he has always looked better the reverse left-handed way round at Te Rapa, the same direction he is trained at Matamata.
In the last two years he has:
* Won an open handicap in late 2005.
* At his next two starts won the Counties Cup, which was transferred to Te Rapa, and the Waikato Gold Cup.
* Finished 3rd in Snazzy's group one International Stakes when the 2000m was a touch sharp for him.
* Last year finished 8th to Sir Slick in the same race when not in the same form as he is now.
* Two starts back finish a close second to Altesino when one race short of full race fitness.
There is little question Kerry O'Reilly is in form close to the best of his career and don't forget he was good enough to finish a close second in the Kelt Capital a little more than a year ago before embarking on a Melbourne Cup campaign that did not see him at his best.
The 58kg might catch up with him late in the race, but on current form he is the one they have to beat.
A couple of talented mares in Mirkola Lass and the rapidly-emerging Genuine Offer might prove the most difficult to beat.
Mirkola Lass is tough and her York Cup win at Avondale last weekend showed she was on the verge of a very lucrative campaign if weight does not eventually tell on her.
Genuine Offer has come from a R80 win two starts back to a group two event - not unheard of, but very rare.
Horses that emerge that rapidly often flounder after a winning treble like Genuine Offer has achieved, but co-trainer Donna Logan says the little mare has never looked like doing that.
"I think the key to her is that she is so laid back in her races," she said. "She absolutely goes to sleep for as long as you want her to in her races and then picks it up and sprints when she's asked.
"She's a tiny little thing and I'm sure her attitude helps her keep going."
Genuine Offer only just scraped punters through she won at short odds at Ellerslie at her last start and was the subject of an objection for interference.
But the 'off' track on the Counties Cup programme that day was right against her.
The sprint she has been able to muster when asked to let down on a dry surface has been hugely impressive.
If she can produce that with just 51.5kg on her back tomorrow, she could eclipse this field.
Genuine Offer has drawn one of the outside gates, but is a back runner and there is a long run to the first bend from the 2400m starting point at Te Rapa.
Donna Logan rates fellow Ruakaka-trained Mirkola Lass as the horse to beat.
"She's tough and she looks an absolute picture at the moment," she said.
Taikorea has probably not been an attractive betting proposition for much of his career, but there was little wrong with his Wanganui Cup victory last start.
Co-trainer Howie Mathews believes the horse needs to be given freedom and Taikorea has won at both the last two occasions that he has been able to run freely in front.
Figure Of Speech is better placed with 56.5kg than he has recently, but his best form has been on wetter tracks than he'll strike here.
