At first glance, it looks a race with two clear leading chances - unbeaten Tony Pike-trained Denman gelding Whiskey Neat and the Jamie Richards-trained Savabeel filly Probabeel.
Aotea Lad dashed at Whiskey Neat late in the group three Eclipse Stakes (1200m) at Ellerslie on New Year's Day in a race where swoopers like him were at a disadvantage. He was eye-catching but even giving him credit for overcoming the race pattern, Aotea Lad has some way to go to turn the tables on Whiskey Neat, who was holding his margin at the line.
Whiskey Neat scored by 10 lengths at Otaki on debut with Leith Innes allowing his charge to run freely in front while still keeping a final gear change up his sleeve.
Innes didn't need that extra gear in the Eclipse either and it seemed evident that Whiskey Neat could have rolled along quicker in front had his jockey not had a Karaka Million to worry about three and a half weeks later.
Drawing two helps Whiskey Neat but with the likes of Louis Luck, Queensland raider Neptune's Spear, Beauty Diva and even Challa adding to a strong pace influence in the race, Innes' tactics will be a crucial factor in the race outcome.
Whiskey Neat may well be good enough to high-tail it from the outset and put his chasing rivals out of their comfort zones, taking out of play their best weapons of sizzling late sprints.
But should he get taken on for the lead, it could be to his peril, a scenario that would play right into the hands of the swooping division.
Probabeel stamped herself as a two-year-old of immense class with a dashing late drive to score at Ellerslie a fortnight ago, denying stablemate Yourdeel late. She has drawn wide but has the services of champion jockey Opie Bosson, whose job will be to turn the outside gate into a positive factor.
That won't be easy, but Bosson has found a way in winning the last two Karaka Millions on Melody Belle and Avantage.
With James McDonald booked for Aotea Lad, that Savabeel gelding can't be discounted, while Blackrocksdetox has hit the line strongly for placings in his only starts to date and could be darting home late at a big price.
So to the undercard.
Madison County is the yardstick for the $1 million Karaka Million 3yo Classic (1600m) but with 17 rivals, this is no easy task. This is a race that might be conducive to a wide play as the final leg of the Pick6, throwing in the likes of Surely Sacred, Victorian visitor Long Leaf, Hypnos, Media Sensation, Queen Of Diamonds, Miss Labasa, Sir Nate and maybe even Prise De Fer.
For Pick6, Sword Of Osman in the group three Mongolian Khan Trophy (1200m) and Volpe Veloce in the group two Westbury Classic (1400m) look standouts, while up-and-comers The Good Fight and Sacred Day look worthy rivals for Mongolian Marshal and Five To Midnight in the opener, the CollinsonForex Karaka Cup (2200m).
Stratocaster looks well weighted in the group three Concorde Handicap (1200m) but respect must be given to Princess Kereru, Ardrossan, Rikki Tikki Tavi, Santa Monica and Volks Lightning.
