Racing: Tough call ahead of main events

Some serious warning signs for the favourites suggest punters can expect an upset in tonight's Summer Cup at Alexandra Park.

The final lead-up race to next week's Auckland Trotting Cup is traditionally a nightmare for punters because favourites face tough handicaps and their drivers are reluctant to thrash them so close to their major aim.

That is complicated tonight by superstars like Elsu, Sly Flyin, Harnett's Creek and Jack Cade having little or no racing in the last six weeks.

Elsu is the best example. He is undoubtedly the best horse in the race and at his peak could overcome his 25m backmark.

But trainer Geoff Small says the brilliant black has next week in mind.

"He has only had one workout since the Miracle Mile [November 26] and he wasn't knocked around to finish second," said Small. "If the race goes his way he can win but he will improve a lot for next week."

His lack of race fitness, handicap and the size of the field suggest Elsu will be under the odds tonight.

The same can be said for Harnetts Creek, even though he has been one of the finds of the open class season.

He comes in off the tricky 15m mark and has yet to win in eight starts at Alexandra Park. Trainer John Parsons says that is unlikely to change tonight.

"He had an interrupted trip up here and got here a few days later than I would have liked," admitted Parsons. "It wouldn't worry some horses but it bothers him because he always sulks for the first few days he is up here.

"That and the fact he hasn't had a workout since he won at Addington last month make me think he will need the run this week.

"I am not saying he can't win but he will need a bit of luck in this field because he is just below his peak."

Such concerns suggest punters should look toward the front of the field and take a chance on lesser performed horses who may need to win tonight to guarantee a start in the Cup.

The best of these could be Maheer Lord.

He performed only moderately at the New Zealand Cup carnival but was a solid third here last start, an effort which encouraged trainer-driver Tony Herlihy.

"He had a bit of a blow after that last run so I think it will do him some good," said Herlihy.

"This looks a good race for him because the best horses have to give him a big start and we should be able to settle handy to the pace.

"I think he will get his chance from there."

That makes him the best value in the race, with the TAB bookies having Maheer Lord at a generous $9 last night.

The interesting runner will be Bobs Blue Boy, who has a huge reputation in Canterbury but not the record to match.

He has looked competitive with the open class horses at his best but can be hard to follow. He did produce a huge finish for second in the Thames Cup here last season and a performance of that quality tonight might be good enough to win.

The race is the toughest leg of a Pick6 guaranteed to $150,000 but those chasing the pool can cut down on their outlay by anchoring Wee Annie in the fifth leg and taking just Mulcay and Galleons Knight in the third leg.

Summer Cup

The $30,000 race is the final lead-up to next week's Auckland Trotting Cup.

Champion pacer Elsu is just below his peak, according to trainer Geoff Small.

The value in the race could be frontmarkers Maheer Lord and Bobs Blue Boy.

Wee Annie in race nine looks the best anchor for the $150,000 Pick6.