It is a matter of which criteria you use to weigh up tomorrow's $40,000 Wellington Hurdles.
If it comes down to weight then first-time hurdler Starbo has to loom large.
In last week's Winter Oats Handicap at Trentham Starbo, who should have won, was beaten a nose by Van Winkle who carried 2kg less.
This time, because of Starbo's novice jumps ranking, Van Winkle is the one conceding 2kg - a 4kg turnaround.
Four kilograms will seem like 14kg at the end of a rugged Nobilo Wines-sponsored Wellington Hurdles.
But it is more likely to be distance rather than weight that will decide this time-honoured race.
Starbo has a private reputation of being an outstanding jumper. He will need to be because running 3400m in a debut jumping event on ground as heavy as Trentham in July, and against the class of Van Winkle and Blakes Boy, is not for the faint-hearted.
Even at the weights it is difficult to imagine the gutsy Starbo holding out a seasoned Van Winkle after 3400m.
Van Winkle has won three of his four hurdle races and had nothing but disdain for the opposition in winning the Manawatu Hurdles before his Trentham outing last week.
"He's right on top of his game," said co-trainer Evan Rayner yesterday.
"He's been to the beach every day since last week's run except today when he ran a strong 2400m here at Wanganui."
Rayner reasons that conditioning will play a big part in determining the winner.
"We've got the advantage of having a couple of more runs than most of the opposition. He also had a tough run last Saturday, which might turn out to be crucial."
Rayner and Starbo's trainer Allan James are both hoping for rain.
"Rain is forecast for Saturday and that would be a huge result. That Trentham footing last week was tough going and although it doesn't greatly concern me as far as this result goes, racing on last week's footing pulls the guts out of them afterwards."
James said that rain on the day was the condition Starbo prefers.
Blakes Boy dropped away to finish fifth to Mr Barrymore in the Hawkes Bay Hurdles after a dashing win in the Waikato Hurdles.
Trainer Joanne Moss expressed the slightest doubt about how much work she had done with Blakes Boy between those two races and it could be that a fitter Blakes Boy arrives at the races tomorrow.
And then there is Drizzle.
Last year's eye-catcher will do it tough conceding 3kg to Van Winkle and Blakes Boy, but he is nothing if not game and will be trying hard to drag his weight through the mud in the closing stages. He has never been known to give in.
Racing: Tough battle looms in Hurdles
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